Jakarta's Pilkada Projection Has The Potential For Two Rounds, Ridwan Kamil Must Work Hard

PSG Chief Researcher Ahsan Ridhoi in the Release of the Jakarta Pilkada Survey in the Kebon Sirih area, Jakarta, (photo: dock. between)

JAKARTA The Head of Political Strategy Group (PSG) researcher, Ahsan Ridhoi, projects that the Jakarta Special Region Election (DKJ) will most likely take place in two rounds, with three governor candidates competing closely. Ahsan revealed a similar experience occurred in the 2017 Pilkada, where three pairs of candidates also forced the vote to be held in two rounds.

In the release of a survey conducted in the Kebon Sirih area, Ahsan explained that the survey results showed that Anies Baswedan dominated with the support of 39 percent of respondents, followed by Basuki Tjahaja Purnama alias Ahok with 22 percent, and Ridwan Kamil in third position with 15 percent.

Jakarta residents tend to want their former governors, both Anies and Ahok, to take the lead again. This correlates with the level of their satisfaction during their second term of office," he said.

Although Ridwan Kamil has a supporting base, Ahsan emphasized that Ridwan Kamil's loyal voters in Jakarta are relatively small when compared to Anies and Ahok. As many as 20 percent of Jakarta's population is known to support Ridwan Kamil, but only 19 percent are confirmed to be loyal to support him.

Ahsan also mentioned that voters in Jakarta are likely to experience electoral psychological pressure because both Anies and Ahok have canceled their Pilkada which is scheduled for November 27. This opens up a great opportunity for the Jakarta Pilkada to resume in two rounds.

After the official announcement of candidates for governor and deputy governor Ridwan Kamil-Suswono, Pramono-Rano, and Dharma-Kun, there are indications that the votes supporting Anies and Ahok will switch to Ridwan Kamil. However, the potential shift in votes from Anies voters is only 47 percent, less than Ahok voters who switch to RK by 58 percent.

Ahsan also emphasized the importance of a campaign strategy that is more solid than candidates. Pramono-Rano, for example, cannot rely on the popularity of imaginative figures such as Si Doel alone. In addition, RK-Suswono is also reminded to better understand the aspirations of Jakarta residents, especially related to residential needs that are of great concern to voters.

PSG concluded that RK-Sus and Pram-Rano had a tough task of withdrawing support from the voter bases of Anies and Ahok. Ahsan even suggested that their campaign could benefit significantly if one of them succeeded in wooing Anies to become the main campaigner. This, he said, could drastically change the political map of the Jakarta Pilkada.