JAKARTA - 2013 Nobel Prize-winning chemical scientist Michael Levitt predicts that the COVID-19 pandemic will soon pass. Based on his modeling, Levitt predicts the corona virus will not "terrorize" for months or even years and will not cause millions of deaths.
"What we need is to control the panic. We'll be fine," said Levitt quoted by the Los Angeles Times, Friday, March 27.
Levitt's predictions may be hopeful. Because, in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic, Levitt had previously predicted a critical period in China. According to him, at that time, China would pass its biggest outbreak after mid-February.
In addition, Levitt also predicts, China will reach the peak of the outbreak at 80,000 cases with 3,250 deaths. The predictions are not far off the mark. The reason is, it was reported, on March 24, China reached the peak of cases with 81,588 cases, with a death rate of 3,281 people.
Currently, Levitt observes about 78 countries that have reported more than 50 new cases per day. By focusing on the development of the new cases he had observed, he saw signs of recovery in each place. "The numbers are still boisterous, but there are clear signs of slowing growth," said Levitt.
In South Korea, for example. According to Levitt, if you look at the data on the total cases of COVID-19 every day, the number seems to continue to grow. However, Levitt said, if you look at the number of recorded cases per day - which in the last weeks recorded no more than 200 cases, it is likely that South Korea has entered the phase of reducing the COVID-19 outbreak.
In addition, in Iran, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases per day has remained relatively flat since last week. While there are still many new cases, Levitt said the pattern suggests an outbreak there "is already past the halfway mark (towards completion)."
Even so, all these good predictions can be realized if all residents in each country are truly disciplined in maintaining distance or physical distancing. Since the outbreak began four months ago, the COVID-19 pandemic has infected 471,783 people worldwide. Among them, 114,858 people were declared cured and 21,306 died.
Levitt's message, clear. Self-discipline to break the chain of transmission is the key to ending this pandemic. So, how long this calamity really depends on everyone. This means that it is important for us to stay at home and follow every appeal of the authorities.
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