North Sumatra Gubernatorial Election Survey: The Electability Of Nikson Nababan, Edy Rahmayadi And Bobby Nasution In Three Tops

JAKARTA - The Indonesian Survey Panel (PSI) released the results of a survey related to the map of the strength of prospective North Sumatra Governor in the 2024 Pilkada. As a result, the names of Nikson Nababan, Edy Rahmayadi and Bobby Nasution are at the top three peaks of electability as North Sumatra cagubs.

PSI Executive Director Mahendra Zaeni explained, in a survey targeting the level of popularity (known), acceptability (accepted), and electability (selected) for prospective regional heads of North Sumatra, the name of the Mayor of Medan, Bobby Nasution, is the most popular with an recognition rate of 89.3 percent.

Followed by former North Sumatra Governor Edy Rahmayadi who has a popularity level of 84.6 percent, and North Tapanuli Regent, Nikson Nababan at 82.2 percent.

"However, the popularity for Nikson Nababan and Edy Rahmayadi is sociometric, where the popularity of sociometrics arises from individual attractions, which are liked because of their various good traits," said Zaeni in his statement, Sunday, August 4.

For example, continued Zaeni, because she has personal abilities, has empathy and often helps others. Meanwhile, Bobby Nasution's level of popularity is included in the nature of perceived popularity.

This, said Zaeni, Bobby is famous, but rarely liked because of his less positive reputation. For example, Bobby is better known for reporting about alleged corruption cases, is considered to like to be angry, and others.

Meanwhile, the popularity of the sociometrics owned by Edy Rahmayadi and Nikson, according to Zaeni, leads to a single construction of preference or acceptability.

Where the level of preference or acceptability from Nikson Nababan is the highest up to 88.2 percent.

Then, followed by Edy Rahmayadi 70.2 percent, and Bobby Nasution whose popularity is perceived has the lowest acceptability rate at 43.7 percent.

Furthermore, Zaeni explained, the survey was also based on simulations with spontaneous open questions to respondents to measure the choice of top of the mind of respondents towards the figure of their choice as Governor of North Sumatra.

"As a result, Nikson Nababan occupies the highest electability rate of 27.2 percent. Followed by Edy Rahmayadi with 19.3 percent and the third Bobby Nasution 14.2 percent," explained Zaeni.

The three names are at the top three peaks of electability as cagub of North Sumatra. The other names of the North Sumatra cagub are still below 10 percent of the top of mind, namely the Deputy Governor of North Sumatra, Musa Rajekshah (Ijeck) in fourth place with 9.3 percent and the former Governor of DKI Jakarta, Basuki Tjahaja Purnama alias Ahok in fifth place 8.9 percent.

"The 5 names were then presented and asked which cagub would be chosen in the 2024 North Sumatra gubernatorial election. As a result, Nikson Nababan received 27.3 percent of the electability support, followed by Edy Rahmayadi 22.8 percent, Bobby Nasution 16.4 percent, Musa Rajekshah 10.4 percent, Ahok 9.8 percent, and did not vote as much as 13.3 percent," explained Zaeni.

The PSI survey also measured indicators of the level of public confidence in the future cagub of North Sumatra to lead the province. As a result, the level of public trust in Nikson Nababan was the highest at 78.3 percent, then Edy Rahmayadi was trusted by 77.8 percent of respondents, while Bobby Nasution believed 46.7 percent of respondents.

Zaeni said the results of the community's assessment were based on the experience of regional leadership for prospective governor candidates. Where Nikson Nababan has two terms of experience as Regent of North Tapanuli, then Edy Rahmayadi experiences one period leading North Sumatra, while Bobby Nasution has only served as mayor of Medan for one period.

The survey then made a head-to-head simulation between Nikson Nababan versus Bobby Nasution. Nikson's electability level is slightly superior at 47.3 percent, while Bobby Nasution is at 42.4 percent, and which does not choose 10.3 percent.

In the head to head simulation between Edy Rahmayadi versus Bobby Nasution, Edy's electability figure reached 37.6 percent while Bobby was 31.2 percent and did not vote 31.2 percent.