Sudaryono's Electability Tempels Ahmad Luthfi, Both Have The Opportunity To Become Governor Of Central Java

Exposure to the survey results of the National Data Index Research Institute (IDN)

JAKARTA - The National Data Index (IDN) research institute released the results of its latest survey regarding the 2024 Election of the Governor of Central Java (Pilgub Jateng). As a result, the chairman of the Central Java Gerindra Party DPD, Sudaryono and Central Java Police Chief Ahmad Luthfi, competed fiercely on the Central Java Pilkada exchange which will be held next November.

IDN Executive Director Syifak Muhammad Yus explained, in open simulations, Sudaryono's electability was in second position and always stuck to Ahmad Luthfi who was in first place in several simulations of the governor candidate.

"In several open simulations, Sudaryono's electability of 9.6% was in second position by closely attaching Ahmad Luthfi who was in first position at 13.5%," said Syifak, Monday, July 15.

"While in third place followed by former Central Java Deputy Governor Taj Yasin Maimoen at 4.6% and in fourth place followed by Dico Ganinduto Kendal Regent at 3.7%," continued Syifak.

This has attracted attention, continued Syifak, because Sudaryono has only served as Chairman of the Central Java Gerindra Party DPD compared to Ahmad Luthfi who has served for a long time in the Central Java region, as well as other candidates.

"If you pay attention, this is very interesting, Sudaryono, who has only served for eight months as Chair of Gerindra Central Java, can stick to Ahmad Luthfi, who has served for a long time in the Central Java region and is above other candidates such as Taj Yasin and Dico," he said.

In addition to the four candidates, there are also other names that have electability in the findings of the IDN survey for the 2024 Central Java gubernatorial election, namely Ganjar Pranowo (Former Governor of Central Java) 3.5%, and Bambang Wuryanto (Chairman of Central Java PDIP DPD) with 2.3%.

In addition, Yusuf Chudlori (Chairman of DPW PKB Central Java) 1.7%, Hendrar Prihadi (Head of LKPP) 1.5%, Casytha Arriwi Kathmandu (Member of DPD RI elected) 1.0%, Kaesang Pangarep (Chairman of PSI) 0.7%, and FX Hadi Rudyatmo (Chairman of DPC PDIP Solo) 0.5%.

Syifak continued, when six candidates were simulated, Ahmad Luthfi was also still in first place with an electability of 20%. Then, followed by Sudaryono 16.7%, Taj Yasin Maimoen 13.6%, Bambang Wuryanto 9.7%, Yusuf Chudlori 5.1%, and Hendrar Prihadi 4.9%.

Likewise, when simulated, only three candidates, namely Ahmad Luthfi had 32% electability, followed by Sudaryono 22.4%, and Hendar Prihardi 6.9%.

"In some simulations, Ahmad Luthfi became the top of the mind and was always in first place and was followed by Sudaryono," he said.

"However, when the only three pairs of candidates simulated were Sudaryono, Bambang Wuryanto, and Yusuf Chudlori, Central Java voters chose Sudaryono with 30.1% electability, then Bambang Wuryanto 18.5%, and Yusuf Chudlori 13.2%," he said.

Although he was always in first place and was followed by Sudaryono and other candidates, Ahmad Luthfi, who served as the longest Central Java Police Chief, became the highest name, not expected to run as a candidate for governor in Central Java.

"The people of Central Java also do not expect Ahmad Luthfi as a candidate for governor. So even though Ahmad Luthfi has a high level of popularity, not always the popular ones have a positive impact," he said.

Furthermore, in a survey related to popularity and likebeality, Ahmad Luthfi's name is indeed the most popular. However, there is no other candidate name that is quite popular or known more than 75% by the people of Central Java.

Where the popularity rate of Ahmad Luthfi is only 61.1%, followed by Taj Yasin Maimoen 58%, Sudaryono 48.3%, Dico Ganinduto 31.8%, and Bambang Wuryanto 31.3%.

"Other candidates are still below 30%. But there is one that we found with the highest level of preference being Sudaryono at 91.5 percent," said Syifak.

He said, based on the findings of a survey, the choice of Central Java residents was still unstable and definite. Where about 59.9% are weak voters who may change their choices later.

In addition, the people of Central Java also want a new figure, experienced in government, wise and honest, clean from KKN, as a candidate for governor who the public wants.

The IDN survey related to the 2024 Central Java gubernatorial election was held from June 30 to July 7, 2024, involving 1200 respondents with a margin of error of around 2.8 percent at a 95 percent confidence level and through a randomly selected method (multistage random sampling).