Poltracking Predictions In The 2024 Legislative Election: The Number Of Chaires Of The PDIP DPR Decreases, Golkar Increases

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JAKARTA - The Poltracking survey institute predicts the acquisition of political party seats (political parties) in the DPR in the 2024 legislative or legislative elections. Poltracking noted that the PDIP seat in parliament has decreased even though it remains the overall champion. Meanwhile, Golkar has the potential to increase.

"The PDI-P received 16.64 percent, the Golkar Party 15.18 percent," said the main researcher of Poltracking, Masduri Amrawi, in his statement, Monday, February 26.

"The predictions and potential for obtaining seats with the lower and upper ranges are as follows, PDI-P is predicted to have 107 seats with a range of 90-125 seats, the Golkar Party is predicted to have 96 seats with a range of 82-111 seats," he continued.

Meanwhile, in third place was the Gerindra Party 13.34 percent, the fourth PKB with 10.89 percent, the fifth NasDem Party 9.24 percent and the sixth PKS 8.17 percent.

The seven Democratic Party 7.41 percent, and the eighth PAN 7.27 percent. The eight parties are predicted to qualify for Senayan.

"The Gerindra Party is predicted to have 90 seats with a range of 78-102 seats, PKB is predicted to have 66 seats with a range of 59-73 seats. The NasDem Party is predicted to have 66 seats with a range of 60-72 seats, PKS is predicted to have 48 seats with a range of 44-52 seats, the Democrat Party is predicted to have 48 seats with a range of 45-52 seats, PAN is predicted to have 47 seats with a range of 44-51 seats," continued Masduri.

For the 2024 election, Poltracking predicts PPP will not qualify for Senayan because the seat acquisition does not meet the Parliamentary threshold. From the data obtained by Poltracking, PPP only got 3.84 percent, followed by PSI 2.89 percent, Perindo Party 1.33 percent.

Meanwhile, political parties participating in other elections are below 1 percent. Such as the Gelora Party 0.94 percent, Hanura Party 0.74 percent, Labor Party 0.63 percent, Ummat Party 0.51 percent, PBB 0.41 percent, Garuda Party 0.33 percent, PKN 0.24 percent.

Masduri emphasized that the prediction refers to the margin of error from the quick count results of each. "Most likely the PDI-P has decreased seats and Golkar has increased seats compared to the results of the 2024 election," he added.

Masduri also explained that the calculation of seats uses the Sainte Lague method at the Regional Electoral (Dapil) level.

In the process of calculating, the most votes for political parties from the distribution results are ordered according to the number of seats available in each electoral district by paying attention to the Parliamentary Threshold of 4 percent nationally.

"The calculation of the seat acquisition of the DPR RI for each electoral district, the valid votes for every political party that meets the threshold for vote acquisition are divided into 1 divisor numbers followed in a sequence by odd numbers 3; 5; 7; and so on," explained Masduri.

It is known that the use of the Sainte Lague method is regulated in Law Number 7 of 2017 concerning Elections, precisely Article 415 paragraph (2).