Prabowo-Gibran's Electability Reaches 50.8%, Has A Chance To Win One Round In The 2024 Presidential Election

The electability survey of the Nusantara Strategic Network (NSN) version of the presidential-cawapres pair. BETWEEN/HO-NSN

JAKARTA - Director of the Nusantara Strategic Network (NSN) Program, Huslidar Riandi, stated that the vice presidential-presidential candidate pair Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka had a great opportunity to win one round in the 2024 presidential election. This was conveyed after the survey results showed the couple's electability reached 50.8 percent.

"Pribowo-Gibran's electability reaches 50.8 percent, firmly above 50 percent or has the opportunity to win one round in the 2024 presidential election," said Huslidar Riandi in a written statement in Jakarta, Monday, January 1.

According to Riandi, support for Prabowo-Gibran has been stronger since being registered with the General Elections Commission (KPU) about three months ago. In the past month, Prabowo-Gibran's electability has even increased from 44.5 percent to 50.3 percent, exceeding the presidential election requirements for one round to take place.

A tight competition occurred between Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud Md to reach second place. Anies-Muhaimin won 22.3 percent electability, while Ganjar-Mahfud got 21.4 percent. As many as 5.5 percent of respondents said they did not know or did not answer.

Riandi explained that the decision to pair Prabowo with Gibran, the eldest son of President Joko Widodo, had a significant electoral effect. The entry of Gibran in the 2024 presidential election arena reinforces the direction of Jokowi's support, which was previously still unclear between Prabowo and Ganjar.

"There has been a migration of voters from the beginning supporting Ganjar-Mahfud to switch to Prabowo-Gibran, then some may cross to the Anies-Muhaimin camp," explained Riandi.

Jokowi's supporters who were initially hesitant have now almost unanimously transferred their support to Prabowo-Gibran. This support became more solid after the presidential and vice presidential debate, in which Prabowo-Gibran emphasized his position as the pair of presidential and vice-presidential candidates who were most committed to the sustainability of Jokowi's programs.

Although Anies-Muhaimin's electability has increased, it is difficult to change the support map in less than a month and a half before the presidential election. Riandi concluded that the presidential election will most likely run one round. Meanwhile, Anies-Muhaimin and Ganjar-Mahfud competed to win the runner-up position.

The NSN survey was conducted on 23-27 December 2023 with 1,200 respondents representing all provinces in Indonesia, using the multistage random sampling method, with a margin of error of around 2.9 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.