CSIS Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Kokoh, Ganjar-Mahfud Electability Defeated By Anies-Muhaimin

Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka/DOK BETWEEN PHOTOS/M RISYAL HIDAYAT)

JAKARTA - The results of the latest survey released by the Indonesian Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) show that the pair number 2 Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka excels from two other pairs after the presidential candidate debate with an electability of 43.7 percent.

"When the survey was conducted, the electability rate of the Anies Baswedan-Muhaimin Iskandar pair was 26.1 percent, Prabowo Subianto-Gibran Rakabuming Raka 43.7 percent and Ganjar Pranowo-Mahfud MD 19.4 percent," said Head of the Department of Politics and Social Change CSIS, Arya Fernandes reported by ANTARA, Wednesday, December 27.

In the survey, he continued, there were still 6.4 percent of voters who claimed to be confidential and had not made a choice, and 4.5 percent said they did not know / did not answer.

"So this is the map we got after the first debate took place. The three candidates still have time and hope to determine political work, both situations could have slight changes up or down due to debate, so there are still 3 debate rounds. The three campaign mobility activities are candidate pairs," he said.

In the 2024 presidential election, Prabowo-Gibran was promoted by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition consisting of the Gerindra Party, Golkar Party, PAN, Democratic Party, four non-parlementary parties, namely the United Nations, the Indonesian Gelora Party, PSI, and the Garuda Party.

The Anies-Cak Imin pair promoted by the Perubaham Coalition includes NasDem, the National Awakening Party (PKB), and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS).

Other candidates participating in this contest are Ganjar-Mahfud MD who is supported by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), the United Development Party (PPP), the Hanura Party, and Perindo.

CSIS released the latest presidential election survey after the Presidential Candidate Debate which was held on December 12, 2023. The poll was held nationally face-to-face on December 13-18, 2024.

The method used is "multistage random sampling" which considers the proportion between the number of voters and the number of samples in each province, aged 17 years and over or getting married when the survey is conducted. The proportion is the gender of the female-principal and urban-rural areas, with a "primary sampling" unit at the village/kelurahan level.

The number of samples of 1,300 people spread proportionally in 34 provinces in Indonesia. "Margin of error"; this survey is approximately 2.7 percent, at a 95 percent confidence level.