LANSKAP Survey: Prabowo-Gibran Unggul Electability On The Island Of Java

Prabowo Subianto with Gibran Rakabuming Raka/DOK Instagram @prabowo

JAKARTA - The Public Policy Institute and Analysis (LANSKAP) released the results of a survey conducted to read maps of political support in 4 (four) provinces on the island of Java for the 2024 General Election.

From the data taken in this survey, LANSKAP found the fact that the majority of public votes in the 4 provinces led to Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka.

"The highest electability in the four provinces was achieved by the Prabowo-Gibran pair with a gain of 40.0 percent," said LANSKAP executive director Mochammad Thoha, Wednesday, November 8.

The second electability was filled by Ganjar Pranowo and Mahfud MD, followed by Anies Rayid Baswedan with Abdul Muhaimin Iskandar.

"Ganjar-Mahfud is in second place with 34.3 percent, and the Anies-Muhaimin pair is 20.0 percent," he said.

There are several theories seen by LANSKAP as why Prabowo-Gibran is ranked the highest in the electability ladder. One of the obvious things is that the pair promoted by the Advanced Indonesia Coalition (KIM) is still considered to be representative of Joko Widodo as President.

"This candidate pair is seen as a representative of Prabowo and Jokowi's consolidation. Jokowi's loyal and cross-party voters will flow increasingly to support this candidate pair," he said.

Especially if you look at the data on respondents who were interviewed, the majority were Joko Widodo and KH Ma'ruf Amin in the 2019 presidential election. The 50.2 percent of Jokowi-Amin supporters, while Prabowo-Sandi supporters were at 28.2 percent, and those who did not answer their political preferences in 2019 were at 21.6 percent.

The second reason according to Thoha is that the Prabowo-Gibran couple is also considered very important among young people, especially millennials and Generation Z (Gen-Z). Because they feel represented by the figure of Gibran, who is notabane, is 36 years old.

"This candidate pair is a representative of the consolidation or collaboration of the old and young generation. There is Prabowo's recognition and wisdom to the younger generation to participate or be involved or collaborate in building the nation through politics (instead of generations)," he explained.

The third theory is why Prabowo-Gibran voters tend to be more in this survey, because respondents think that they see Prabowo's current figure as more friendly and egalitarian.

"Pribowo's personal appearance in a polite, friendly, open, embracing and more egalitarian figure is considered to also bring strong electoral attraction," he said.

LANSKAP also explained how the potential map of the strength of the 2024 presidential and vice-presidential candidates is when viewed from the regionality side. Thoha explained that the Prabowo-Gibran pair has so far been ahead in two provinces, namely West Java and East Java.

Meanwhile, the Anies-Imin pair are only strong in DKI Jakarta, and the Ganjar Mahfud pair are only strong in Central Java.

DKI Jakarta

Anies-Imin : 34.1 percent

Ganjar-Mahfud : 15.9 percent

Prabowo-Gibran : 30.0 percent

West Java

Anies-Imin : 23.4 percent

Ganjar-Mahfud : 19.3 percent

Prabowo-Gibran : 50.7 percent

Central Java

Anies-Imin : 11.3 percent

Ganjar-Mahfud : 58.1 percent

Prabowo-Gibran : 30.1 percent

East Java

Anies-Imin : 18.8 percent

Ganjar-Mahfud : 35.4 percent

Prabowo-Gibran : 40.4 percent

"However, the Prabowo-Gibran candidate pair managed to get support of 30.1 percent. The probability of this electability number will continue to increase in Central Java and can balance Ganjar-Mahfud's electability there," continued Thoha.

This survey was taken using a sample of 880 respondents in 4 (four) provinces on the island of Java, namely DKI Jakarta, West Java, Central Java and East Java. The time range used in the sampling is 26 October - 2 November 2023 with a direct interview.

The methodology used is probability sampling and multistage random sampling with a margin of error (MoE) of approximately 3.3 percent with a confidence level of up to 95 percent