JAKARTA - Cumulative positive cases of COVID-19 were recorded to be close to 1.2 million, or to be precise, 1,157,837 people. The high rate of case transmission has made Indonesia's economic growth in 2020 minus 2.07 percent. To overcome this, the government was asked to consider implementing a lockdown.
Economist at the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Bhima Yudhistira said that the economic minus throughout 2020 shows a failure to deal with the pandemic.
"The government's failure to control the pandemic has resulted in people still holding back on shopping", he told reporters some time ago.
This is reflected in the economic growth figure in the fourth quarter which contracted by minus 2.19 percent on an annual basis or year on year (yoy) or minus 2.07 percent for full-year 2020.
According to Bhima, the new normality policy that was enforced was proven to be a blunder, on the one hand, there was a push for the public to be able to carry out activities with the health protocol, but PSBB continued to have limited operations for various types of businesses.
Economic growth in 2021 is still minus
Meanwhile, Executive Director of the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Tauhid Ahmad predicts that national economic growth in the first quarter of 2021 will be around minus 1 percent.
The prediction from Indef is inseparable from the situation of the spread of COVID-19, the development of people's purchasing power, and inflation that is below 1.5 percent in January 2021. According to Tauhid, until now several things have not shown any significant changes that have occurred in early 2021.
"This hasn't changed much, there are improvements but it's still slow", he said, during a virtual press conference on Sunday, February 7.
Tauhid said, the implementation of the Policy on the Application of Restrictions on Community Activities (PPKM) also affected national economic growth. So that the national economic growth in the first quarter of this year will still grow at a minus.
"So don't expect the current situation to grow positively. We estimate it is minus 1 percent, it cannot be positive yet", he said.
The government needs to consider a lockdown
Pandemic control is said to be the key or solution to moving the economy back down amidst the increase in active cases of COVID-19 in the country. Reflecting on the country that has successfully handled the pandemic, it is important for Indonesia to implement a lockdown because it will be effective in breaking the chain of the COVID-19 virus even though the economy will be hit hard but it will recover quickly.
Therefore, Tauhid said the government needed to try out the policy discourse that was circulating in the public, namely lockdowns at the weekend.
According to Tauhid, this policy is worth trying even though the impact might not be as effective as if the government carried out a total lockdown with an incubation period of 7 to 14 days. But at least, he said, the discourse would not disturb the industrial and business sectors.
The discourse on the weekend lockdown policy that is currently surfacing can be tested as an alternative policy to reduce the risk of transmission without giving up the performance of the industrial and business sectors on weekdays.
If the discourse on the weekend lockdown is implemented, Tauhid will warn the government regarding the distribution of goods. According to him, the government must be able to ensure that the distribution of goods and logistics continues.
Tauhid also asked the government to continue to carry out massive testing, tracing, and treatment (3T). Not to forget about the health protocol for preventing COVID-19 which includes wearing masks, washing hands, and avoiding crowds (3M).
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