Indo Research Survey: Electability Of Ganjar Lihat Anies And Prabowo, Tembus 37 Percent

Ganjar Pranowo (Photo via Central Java Provincial Government)

JAKARTA - The Indo Research survey institute released the results of a survey related to the electability of the top three presidential candidates (candidates) popular in the period 12-17 December 2022. As a result, the electability of the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo, excels with an electability rate of 37.1 percent. Ganjar's survey results outperformed two other popular presidential candidates, namely the former Governor of DKI Jakarta, Anies Baswedan in second position with 30.2 percent. Followed by General Chairperson Gerindra Prabowo Subianto with 27.5 percent. "In the December 2022 survey, during the simulation of 3 names, Ganjar Pranowo got 37.1 percent, followed by Anies Baswedan 30.2 percent, and Prabowo Subianto (27.5 percent). The remaining 5.3 percent did not know and did not answer," said Director of Indo Research, Roki Arbi, in a virtual press release, Tuesday, January 3. This survey also found that Anies and Ganjar's vote increased in the last 1 year. Anies Baswedan experienced an increase from 27.7 percent in the August 2022 survey, to 30.2 percent in December 2022. Meanwhile Ganjar experienced an increase from 33.4 percent in August 2022 to 37.1 percent in December 2022. Meanwhile, Prabowo Subianto experienced a decline from 33.3 percent in August 2022 to 27.5 percent in December 2022. Roki revealed, until December 2022, no candidate has managed to get an electability rate above 50 percent of the vote. So he said, the 2024 presidential election is predicted to take place in two rounds.

"Anies and Ganjar have the opportunity to enter the second round of the presidential election, if the presidential election is held in two rounds. Because no candidate gets above 50 percent of the votes," he said. In the simulation of head to head presidential candidates in 3 simulations, Anies won narrowly when dealing with Ganjar. Anies received 46.2 percent of the votes and Ganjar 45.7 percent. Meanwhile, 8.1 percent of respondents stated they did not know/did not answer. Then if Anies was faced with Prabowo, NasDem presidential reading was also slightly superior. Indo Research recorded that Anies got 45.4 percent of the votes, and Prabowo 44.2 percent. Meanwhile, 10.4 percent were still minor voters.

"But if Ganjar fights Prabowo, then Ganjar will win. Ganjar gets 48.7 percent and Prabowo 42.5 percent. And 8.8 percent do not know or do not answer," said Roki.

For information, the Indo Research survey was conducted on 12-17 December 2022 through face-to-face interviews using structured questionnaires. The sample was randomly selected using the multi-stage random sampling method. The sample withdrawal considers the proportion between the population and the distribution of samples per province, the proportion of the population living in rural and urban areas, and the proportion of male and female sex (50:50).

The sample amount is 1,120 samples that are spread proportionally in 34 provinces. Using 1,120 samples, the margin of error (MoE) for this survey is +/- 2.92 percent at a 95 percent confidence level.