JAKARTA - Iran's rulers are likely to survive protests that have plagued the country and could stay in power for years, Israel's chief military intelligence analyst said on Monday, although it is predicted that it will not last for the long term.
Lock in a Cold War-style conflict with Iran, Israel has been closely monitoring protracted and violent riots, offering several statements of support for the protesters.
But Israeli officials, their focus on Iran's nuclear projects and regional guerrilla allies, have been wary of Tehran's prospects culminated by the popular uprising.
"Repressive Iranian regimes appear to be surviving this protests," Brigadier General Amit Saar, Israel's chief military intelligence research officer in charge of national strategic forecasts, said in a speech.
"It has built a very, very powerful tool to deal with such protests," he said at the first public conference by the Gazit Institute, a think-tank operating under his corps.
"But I think even if these protests are reduced, the reasons (for them) will remain, and thus the Iranian regime has had problems over the years to come," continued Saar.
Speaking at the same forum, military intelligence commander Major General Aharon HaIVA summarized Saar's statement, but added: "Looked at the long term, it seems this regime will not survive."
"I am not in a position to give a date. We are not a prophet," he warned.
"I recommend that we all become much simpler, with more warnings, in terms of community behavior."
Last month, Haiva called the protests that rocked Iran starting to resemble a people's uprising. Nevertheless, he sees "no real danger" to the current continuity of the ruling Tehran government.
Pergolakan, which was sparked by the death of Iranian Kurdish woman Mahsa Amini on September 16 in moral police custody, is one of the strongest challenges for the Iranian government since the 1979 revolution. Tehran branded the protest a Western-backed plot.
It is known that protests in Iran entered its third month with Human Rights Group HRANA saying that as of Friday 469 protesters had been killed, including 64 minors. It said 61 government security forces were also killed. In addition, 18,210 protesters are believed to have been arrested.
Meanwhile, Javaid Rehman, an independent UN-appointed expert in Iran, said on Tuesday more than 300 people died in the protests, including more than 40 children.
Meanwhile, Mizan's news agency quoted the state security board, Ministry of Home Affairs as saying 200 people were killed in a recent "crush".
Last Monday, Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander General Amir Ali Hajizadeh said about 300 people, including members of the security forces, had died in recent riots.
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