Dear Ummat, Gelora And Labor Party, BRIN Researcher Says Chances Of Passing To Parliament In 2024 Election Are Small

Photo archive - LIPI Political Observer Siti Zuhro. BETWEEN PHOTOS/Puspa Perwitasari/nz/pri. (BETWEEN PHOTOS/PUSPA PERWITASARI/PUSPA PERWITASARI)

JAKARTA - Researcher from the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN) Siti Zuhro predicts that new political parties (political parties) have a small chance of qualifying for parliament in the 2024 General Election (Pemilu).

“The opportunity for new parties is not great because they are fighting for the same number, except that there are not many Islamic parties. Not prospective," said Siti Zuhro when contacted in Jakarta, Antara, Tuesday, July 12.

The Muslim mass-based parties referred to by the senior researcher include the Indonesian People's Wave Party (Gelora) formed by former PKS elites Anis Matta and Fahri Hamzah.

The Ummat Party, created by PAN founder Amien Rais, and the Pelita Party, which was initiated by the former General Chairperson of the Muhammadiyah Central Executive, Din Syamsuddin.

The "Reborn" Masyumi Party founded by former PPP politician Ahmad Yani, and the Indonesian People's Da'wah Party (PDRI).

In addition to Islamic parties fighting for the same mass base, the Nusantara Awakening Party (PKN) led by former member of the DPR from the Democratic Faction I Gede Pasek Suardika, and the Labor Party led by the President of the Confederation of Indonesian Trade Unions (KSPI), Said Iqbal, also attempted to become a contestant in the 2024 election.

According to Siti, even if they pass the General Election Commission's (KPU) factual verification, the new parties still have to work hard to pass the parliamentary threshold of four percent. The election journey shows that only a few new parties have made their way to Senayan.

Of the nine parties that passed the four percent parliamentary threshold in the 2019 general election, there was not a single new party.

"So, the empirical phenomenon is that it is not easy for a new party to get a seat in the DPR RI, even if it can be in the provincial area, the district/city DPRD will pass," said Siti.

On the other hand, there are old parties that previously won seats in the DPR RI, but in the 2019 elections failed to meet the parliamentary threshold. The party in question is the Hanura Party. This shows that it is not easy for political parties to participate in elections, especially for new parties.

"What is worrying is that parties that already exist in the DPR could be thrown away, while new parties may not necessarily enter," he added.

Siti continued, the number of new Islamic parties could harm the existing Muslim mass-based parties first, in embracing or retaining voters.

"It's also called competition, election contestation. So, it is a threat to Islamic parties such as PAN, PKB, PPP, PKS," said Siti.

He further explained, with the split of the Islamic party, the lucky nationalist party. This was proven in the 1955 General Election, where Muslim mass-based parties gained more than 40 percent of the votes, but declined in subsequent elections.

“In the next election, during the New Order and Reformation era, Muslim (political parties) votes fell. Now it's around 30 percent," said Siti.