UK Says Ukrainian Troops Most Likely Deserted, But Russian Troop Morale Is Also Problematic, Analyst: Moscow May Take Sievierodonetsk

Ukrainian officials inspect the wreckage of the Russian troops attack. (Wikimedia Commons/National Police of Ukraine)

JAKARTA - British military analysts say Russia may be able to seize Sievierodonetsk in eastern Ukraine, despite troubling morale, while Ukrainian troops are likely to desert.

Britain's Ministry of Defense said on Sunday both Russia and Ukraine had resumed heavy bombardment around Sievierodonestk "with slight changes to the front line."

As for analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington DC-based think tank, the United States wrote in a note, "Russian forces will likely be able to seize Sievierodonetsk in the coming weeks, but at the expense of most of their available forces here. . small area."

A British military assessment said morale for Ukrainian and Russian combat units in the Donbas was likely to "varied."

"Ukrainian forces have most likely deserted in recent weeks, however, Russian morale is likely to remain problematic. Cases of all Russian units refusing orders and armed clashes between officers and their troops continue," the UK Ministry of Defense said on Twitter, citing Reuters, June 20.

Meanwhile, Lugansk Governor Serhiy Gaidai told Ukrainian TV the fighting made evacuation of the city impossible, but "all Russian claims that they control the city are lies. They control the main part of the city, but not the whole city."

Among the communities around Sievierdonestk, Gaidai told Ukrainian TV that the Russian attack on Toshkivka, 35 km (20 miles) south, "had a high degree of success."

In Sievierodonetsk's sister city, Lysychansk, residential buildings and private homes have been destroyed by the Russian offensive, Gaidai said. "People are dying on the streets and in bomb shelters," he added.

He later said 19 people had been evacuated on Sunday. "We are managing to bring in humanitarian aid and evacuate people as best we can," Gaidai continued.

Previously, Russia had said on Sunday that its offensive to win Sievierdonetsk itself had been a success.

"The attack on Sievierodonetsk is progressing successfully," Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Igor Konashenkov said in a video statement. He said the Metyolkine settlement, on the city's eastern outskirts, had been seized.

Having failed to capture the capital Kyiv early in the war, Russian forces have focused on trying to take complete control of the Donbas, parts of which had been held by Russian-backed separatists before the February 24 invasion.

"We have to prepare for the fact that it could take years. We must not give up on supporting Ukraine," Stoltenberg was quoted as saying.