Simulation Against Anies Baswedan And Ganjar Pranowo, Prabowo's Electability Reaches 50 Percent

President Jokowi and Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto (Photo: BPMI Setpres/Laily Rachev)

JAKARTA - The electability rate of the General Chairperson of the Gerindra Party DPP Prabowo Subianto reaches more than 50 percent when faced with a number of political figures in the presidential election simulation (pilpres) held by the Indonesian Survey and Polling (SPIN).

Director of SPIN Igor Dirgantara, Wednesday, April 13, said the results showed that political figures who ran for the presidential election would find it difficult to face Prabowo.

"In the head to head simulation between presidential candidates, the majority of the public chose Prabowo Subianto with a percentage of more than 50 percent of the vote when dealing with Ganjar, Anies, AHY (Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono), Erick Thohir, and Airlangga Hartarto," said Igor quoted from Antara.

In the presidential election simulation between Prabowo and Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo, he continued, the Minister of Defense received 52.8 percent of the vote, while his opponent's was 38.5 percent. In the simulation, the threshold vote (undecided voters) reached 8.7 percent.

Prabowo also excelled in the presidential election simulation against DKI Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan. Prabowo won 53.4 percent of the vote, while Anies 38.1 percent, with a threshold of 8.5 percent.

In other simulations, he continued, Prabowo got the most votes, namely 58.9 percent in the presidential election simulation against the DPP Chairman of the Democratic Party Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono. In the simulation, AHY got 27.7 percent of the votes and the threshold vote reached 13.4 percent.

While in the presidential election simulation against the Minister of State-Owned Enterprises (BUMN) Erick Thohir, Prabowo's vote reached 60.3 percent and Erick got 20.9 votes, with a threshold vote reaching 8.7 percent.

Finally, in the presidential election simulation against the DPP General Chairperson of the Golkar Party, Airlangga Hartarto, Prabowo also still led the way in gaining 65 percent of the vote. Airlangga, in the simulation, received 20.9 percent of the vote, with a threshold of 14.1 percent.

Apart from the simulation, Prabowo's electability level in the survey which was held from 28 March to 7 April 2022 also took first place with 26.5 percent of the vote.

In second place and so on are Ganjar Pranowo (17.2 percent), Anies Baswedan (13.9 percent), Minister of Tourism and Creative Economy Sandiaga Uno (4.3 percent), West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil (3.9 percent), AHY (3.3 percent), DPR Speaker Puan Maharani (2.6 percent), Erick Thohir (1.8 percent), Social Minister Tri Rismaharini (1.6 percent), and Airlangga Hartarto (1.3 percent).

"In the four series of surveys conducted by SPIN, there was an increase in the electability of Prabowo," said Igor.

He explained that Prabowo has a strong voter base and it is possible that people who are disappointed with Prabowo's policy of forming a coalition with the government will re-elect the Ketum Gerindra.

The survey and simulation of the SPIN presidential election involved 1,230 respondents using face-to-face interviews and filling out questionnaires. Survey respondents are spread across 34 provinces and are citizens who have the right to vote with a minimum age of 17 years. The survey's confidence level is 95 percent and the margin of error is approximately 2.8 percent.