IndEX Survey: Prabowo's Electability Is In Tight Competition With Ganjar Pranowo, Away From Anies, Ridwan Kamil, Erick Thohir To AHY

Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The results of a survey released by Indonesia Elections and Strategic (indEX) Research show that the electability of the General Chair of the Gerindra Party, Prabowo Subianto, is in tight competition with the Governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo.

"IndEX Research's findings show that Prabowo Subianto is back in the lead with an electability of 20.3 percent," said indEX Research researcher Reza Reinaldi in a written statement, quoted from Antara, Sunday, January 9.

In second place, Ganjar Pranowo overshadowed with an electability of 20.0 percent. Far behind the two, Anies Baswedan is in tight competition with Ridwan Kamil at 10.6 percent and 10.2 percent, respectively.

"Prabowo and Ganjar are increasingly being overtaken in the 2024 presidential candidate market, followed by Anies and Ridwan Kamil who are competing fiercely," he said.

According to Reza, Prabowo's electability may still be pursued by Ganjar. Despite winning, the trend in the last two years shows that Prabowo's electability tends to be stable at around 20 percent.

Meanwhile, Ganjar experienced an upward trend from electability below 10 percent, moving up at 14 to 17 percent, and has now penetrated 20 percent. If the trend continues, it is predicted that Ganjar will win and leave Prabowo.

Under Anies and Ridwan Kamil, two other figures are also competing, namely Sandiaga Uno with 7.1 percent electability and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono 5.3 percent.

"If the 2024 presidential election is again followed by two pairs, it is very likely that a fierce competition will occur," said Reza.

According to him, Anies, Ridwan Kamil, Sandiaga Uno and Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono have the opportunity to compete for the vice presidential candidate tickets if Prabowo and Ganjar run as presidential candidates.

In addition, there are a number of other names, namely Erick Thohir 4.4 percent, Tri Rismaharini 4.0 percent, Khofifah Indar Parawansa 2.1 percent and Giring Ganesha 2.0 percent.

Then there are also names who are strong figures in political parties, namely Puan Maharani 1.6 percent and Airlangga Hartarto 1.0 percent.

"The situation is somewhat different if the 20 percent presidential threshold is abolished, the chances of these names advancing as presidential candidates are wide open," he said.

The Index Research survey was conducted from December 26, 2021 to January 5, 2022, on 1,200 people representing all provinces. Respondents were randomly selected and interviewed face-to-face with the application of health protocols. The margin of error is around 2.9 percent with a 95 percent confidence level.