JAKARTA - The Executive Director of Aljabar Strategic Indonesia, Arifki Chaniago, revealed that the strengthening of the discourse on the continuation of the government of Prabowo Subianto and Gibran Rakabuming Raka for two periods not only has an impact on the national political map, but also has the potential to affect the political ambitions of a number of coalition party elites who have been called the chance to become vice presidential candidates in the 2029 presidential election.
According to him, the discourse that has begun to be echoed by a number of parties, including the 7th President of the Republic of Indonesia Joko Widodo (Jokowi) to the Prabowo-Gibran duet to run again in 2029 can be read as a hard code of political consolidation. However, at the same time, the discourse has the potential to narrow the competition space for other figures within the coalition.
"The stronger the push of Prabowo-Gibran for two periods, the greater the potential for anxiety among the coalition party elite. Because, there are figures who have been perceived to have political interests to enter the vice presidential candidate exchange in 2029," said Arifki, Sunday, June 28.
He said that a number of names such as Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono (AHY), Muhaimin Iskandar or Cak Imin, to Zulkifli Hasan have long been said to have political capital and strategic positions to enter the 2029 presidential election.
"If from now on there is a perception that the Prabowo-Gibran pair will be retained again in the 2029 presidential election, then the competition for the position of vice presidential candidate will automatically become narrower. This will certainly affect the political calculations of coalition parties," he continued.
Arifki assessed that this situation has the potential to create a political dilemma within the coalition. On the one hand, the parties concerned maintain the solidity of the government. However, on the other hand, they also have the interest to increase their bargaining position and prepare their best cadres to face the upcoming national contestation.
"In politics, support for the government and the succession agenda often go hand in hand. Therefore, the discourse of two periods cannot be seen solely as support for the Prabowo-Gibran government, but also has implications for the distribution of political opportunities within the coalition," he explained.
He said, the emergence of this discourse has the potential to make a number of parties begin to recalculate their long-term political strategies. Moreover, some parties have figures who are considered electorally and structurally eligible to enter the national leadership exchange.
However, Arifki emphasized that the political direction of 2029 still depends heavily on the performance of the government in the next few years. "In the end, what determines it is not the political elite, but the public. However, when the discourse of two periods has begun to be chanted since the beginning of the government, parties that have potential figures will certainly begin to recalculate their strategies and offers," he added.
According to Arifki, the more often the Prabowo-Gibran discourse is put forward to the public, the greater the opportunity for a silent competition within the coalition. "Because what is being contested is not only power today, but also the ticket to power in 2029," he said.
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