The COVID-19 Task Force Predicts An Increase In COVID-19 Cases In March 2022 If The Health Protocols Are Weak Or The Testing Decreases

UNSPLASH ILLUSTRATION

JAKARTA - Head of the Behavior Change Division of the COVID-19 Handling Task Force Sonny Harry said Indonesia needed to be aware of the potential spike in positive cases of COVID-19.

"The worst estimate is that cases will increase by around 430 percent until March 1, 2022, if we don't make strict efforts, weaken the implementation of health protocols, vaccinations don't reach targets, and testing and tracing declines," Sonny said in the webinar "Don't be so confident, the pandemic hasn't passed yet" quoted by Antara, Monday, November 22.

The government learns that positive cases of COVID-19 can spike after a long holiday, both during Eid al-Fitr and Christmas and the new year, because people's mobility increases not only between cities within the country.

"There is also the mobility of people returning from other countries, this is what we must be aware of so we must continue to tighten efforts to screen people who enter to prevent the entry of new COVID-19 variants in Indonesia," he said.

In the 13 weeks after Christmas and New Year's 2020, positive cases of COVID-19 increased by 398 percent. Likewise, when the delta variant began to spread in Indonesia after Idul Fitri 2021, positive cases of COVID-19 increased to 900 percent in 8 weeks.

However, in the last 2.5 months, daily positive cases have been reduced from around 56 thousand to 314 cases. Meanwhile, active cases can be lowered from a peak of 547 thousand to 8 thousand.

"Why can we be like that, one of which we learn from other countries. What causes our cases to decline, first is the implementation of PPKM (implementation of restrictions on community activities) in a disciplined and consistent manner," he said.

After the PPKM was relaxed because cases began to decline, the implementation of health protocols (prokes) continued to be tightened, which can be monitored through the PeduliLindung application. Testing and tracing, as well as COVID-19 vaccinations, are also intensified so that positive cases can be maintained.

Sonny added that the surge in positive cases of COVID-19 needs to be watched out for because other countries are starting to experience it, for example, Switzerland and Germany. The daily positive cases of COVID-19 in Switzerland reached 6.000 while in Germany it could reach 56.000.

"And we know there is a delta sub-variant which is now in Singapore and Malaysia. And it will be risky if we don't control the transmission of COVID-19," said Sonny.

To keep positive cases of COVID-19 from surging, especially after Christmas and the new year, the government has tightened screening for people from abroad who want to enter, removing the joint Christmas leave.

Then limit the movement of people, tighten the implementation of health protocols that are monitored through the PeduliLindungi application, and oversee the implementation of policies down to the lowest administrative level. In addition, the COVID-19 vaccination, especially for the elderly, is also being intensified.