JAKARTA - Indonesia's economic growth in 2026 is still potentially above the World Bank's projection, although it is difficult to penetrate the five percent level in the midst of current global uncertainty.
"I think Indonesia will grow above the World Bank's projection, but it is difficult to break through five percent," said Wijayanto Samirin, economist at Paramadina University, quoting Antara.
For information, the World Bank has cut its economic growth projection for Indonesia to 4.7 percent from 4.8 percent.
He estimated that economic growth in the first quarter of 2026 still has the potential to reach around 5.5 percent, because economic activity is helped by seasonal factors, such as Christmas and New Year's Eve, Chinese New Year, and Lebaran.
However, in the second to fourth quarters, Indonesia's economy is expected to face pressure from a decline in purchasing power, a weakening exchange rate, rising inflation, and global uncertainty that encourages investors to be wait and see.
In addition, there is the potential for El Nino which can worsen economic conditions.
Furthermore, Wijayanto explained that economic growth in 2026 is highly dependent on domestic consumption amid limited impetus from other components such as the projected investment which tends to be gradual, limited government spending, and export performance which is estimated not to experience a significant surge.
In this condition, he continued, a number of sectors are expected to become growth engines.
"Sectors that have the potential to become growth engines include trade, finance, mining and downstream, food and beverages, health, telecommunications, and retail," said Wijayanto.
Previously, Coordinating Minister for the Economy Airlangga Hartarto responded to the World Bank's revised growth projection. According to him, the revision is a natural thing in the midst of increasing global geopolitical tensions that affect many countries.
"With the war situation, yes they all lowered (projections) in various regions," said Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs and Investment Airlangga in Jakarta, Thursday (9/4).
However, he assessed that the projection was still considered optimistic because it was above the average global economic growth.
"But if we look at the figure, it is still above the average global growth. The average global growth is 3.4 percent, but if Indonesia itself is optimistic because later in the first quarter (2026) see what the results are like," he said.
The World Bank in its April 2026 edition of the East Asia and Pacific Economic Update report lowered Indonesia's economic growth projection to 4.7 percent from the previous 4.8 percent in October 2025.
The institution said the slowdown was influenced by external pressures, especially the rise in global oil prices and the increased caution of investors in the international financial market.
However, the World Bank assessed that Indonesia still has economic buffers, including from commodity exports and government investment initiatives, which can help mitigate the impact of rising energy costs in the short term.
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