JAKARTA - Tokocrypto analyst Fyqieh Fachrur assesses that the prospects for Bitcoin price movements in 2026 are still promising, but are still overshadowed by high volatility as global dynamics are not yet fully stable.
According to him, in his statement received by Antara, in Jakarta, Monday, January 12, the crypto market entered a transition phase that made the direction of Bitcoin's movement increasingly influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulator policies.
Beyond short-term fluctuations, a number of global industry players and investors project Bitcoin prices in 2026 to move in a very wide range, ranging from US$75,000 or around Rp1.25 billion to US$225,000 or equivalent to Rp3.77 billion. The wide range of projections reflects Bitcoin's sensitivity to global monetary policy, liquidity conditions, and digital asset regulatory developments.
"Several financial institutions and industry players estimate that Bitcoin has the potential to be in the range of US$120,000-US$170,000 in the second half of 2026, driven by expectations of lower interest rates and clarity of digital asset regulations in the United States," said Fyqieh.
However, a more conservative scenario sees Bitcoin moving in the $75,000-150,000 area, with high volatility due to geopolitical uncertainty and a global economic slowdown.
He assessed that the difference in the projection shows a change in the structure of the crypto market.
"Bitcoin enters 2026 with a different market structure compared to previous cycles. The role of institutional investors, ETFs (Bitcoin exchange-traded funds), and regulations will become more dominant, so that volatility remains high, but the demand base becomes broader and more mature," said Fyqieh.
According to him, the direction of US central bank policy will be a key factor in determining Bitcoin's future movement.
"If interest rates really fall and liquidity returns loose, Bitcoin has the potential to test the previous high again. However, investors still need to be aware of sharp fluctuations because the market is still very sensitive to macro data and ETF flows," he said.
Market participants will also pay attention to the release of inflation data (CPI) and the United States employment report which is considered to be the main catalyst for the movement of Bitcoin and the crypto market in the coming months.
The price of Bitcoin was recorded as rising 1.01 percent to 91,522.17 US dollars on Monday at 14.42 WIB. However, earlier Bitcoin had corrected below 90 thousand US dollars due to short-term pressure from ETF outflows and market participants' profit-taking actions.
The pressure comes amid the release of US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data for the November period which recorded 7.1 million job vacancies, far below market expectations. This data strengthens the signal of a slowdown in the US economy and opens the opportunity for monetary easing by The Fed.
However, instead of strengthening, Bitcoin continued to weaken after previously touching the US$89,000 area at the beginning of the year. Overall, the global crypto market capitalization corrected by around 3.2 percent to US$3.08 trillion, with pressure also seen on Ethereum and a number of major altcoins.
Fyqieh assessed that the movement more reflects a consolidation phase.
"The fundamentally weak US labor data actually supports risky assets such as Bitcoin because it increases the chances of interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, the market is still overshadowed by profit-taking actions, ETF pressure, and leverage adjustments," he said.
Market pressure was also exacerbated by the outflow of Spot Bitcoin ETF funds which reached around US$243 million in one day, accompanied by selling activity from miners as well as the liquidation of derivative positions. More than US$64 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated in the last 24 hours.
According to Fyqieh, as long as Bitcoin is able to survive above the psychological level of 90 thousand US dollars, the medium-term trend is still relatively stable.
"The rejection at the resistance of 94 thousand US dollars triggered a technical correction. However, as long as the main support is not broken, this movement is more towards consolidation, not a trend reversal," he explained.
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