JAKARTA - The movement of the rupiah exchange rate in Wednesday, January 7, 2026 trading is expected to be under pressure and tends to weaken against the US dollar.
To note, quoting Bloomberg, on Tuesday, January 6, the spot rupiah exchange rate closed down 0.11 percent to Rp16,758 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of the Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.08 percent at a price level of Rp16,762 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi, assessed that global sentiment also burdened currency movements, one of which came from the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, which according to US President Donald Trump was carried out without the approval of Congress.
"Trump hinted that the US would take control of Venezuela temporarily and open the country's oil industry, inviting major American oil companies to invest in the country," he said in his statement, quoted, Wednesday, January 7.
In terms of economic data, the condition of US manufacturing also still shows weakness, namely the US ISM Manufacturing PMI index in December 2025 was recorded at 47.9, lower than the forecast of 48.3 and decreased compared to November which was at 48.2.
According to him, this achievement marks a contraction for ten consecutive months, as well as confirming the continued pressure in the manufacturing sector.
In addition, Ibrahim said market pressure was also strengthened by the statement of the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, Neel Kashkari, who still maintains a hawkish stance where US inflation is still at too high a level, even though current monetary policy is close to a neutral position.
Kashkari also described the US labor market as being in a state of low hiring and limited layoffs, indicating low labor turnover.
Meanwhile, from within the country, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) DKI Jakarta stated that inflation in Jakarta throughout 2025 was controlled at 2.63 percent from the target of 2.5 percent plus minus 1 percent, with the contributor to the inflation rate still dominated by the food, beverage and tobacco sector.
On an annual basis (year-on-year/yoy), inflation occurred along with the increase in the prices of a number of commodities reflected by the increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) from 105.69 in December 2024 to 108.47 in December 2025.
Meanwhile, the most significant price increase came from the food, beverage, and tobacco group, which increased by 3.67 percent.
In addition, the housing, water, electricity, and household fuel group rose 3.22 percent, followed by the clothing and footwear group by 0.56 percent, and household equipment, equipment, and routine maintenance by 0.47 percent.
The health group recorded an increase of 2.08 percent, transportation 0.71 percent, recreation, sports, and culture 0.88 percent, education 2.16 percent, food and beverage/restaurant providers 0.83 percent, and personal care and other services jumped 11.89 percent.
BPS also noted that Jakarta's inflation throughout 2025 was also influenced by the change of school year, the celebration of National Religious Holidays (HBKN), the increase in the price of gold jewelry following the global gold price trend, as well as various other seasonal factors.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will move fluctuatio but will close weaker on Wednesday, January 7, 2026 in the price range of IDR 16,750 - IDR 16,780 per US dollar.
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