Perbanas: Conservative Banking Industry in 2026, Credit Projected to Grow Single Digit

Chairman of the Research and Economic Studies of Perbanas Banking, Aviliani. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The National Bank Association (Perbanas) said the banking industry is still conservative, so that credit growth in 2026 is projected to remain single digit amid weak real sector demand and global uncertainty.

Chairman of the Research and Economic Studies of Perbanas Bank Aviliani said this condition was mainly influenced by the lack of significant credit demand from the real sector, even though the banking liquidity was relatively adequate, while the business world still tended to refrain from applying for new financing.

"On average, banks are still conservative to remain single digits. They still say they are growing by around 8-9 percent, because they still haven't seen a high enough trigger for credit demand," Aviliani said when contacted by Antara, in Jakarta, quoted Wednesday, January 7.

Furthermore, Aviliani believes that new optimism will begin to form when state-owned enterprise (BUMN) spending and investment activities increase again. According to him, the large scale of BUMN spending and investment is often the initial trigger for credit demand.

However, the realization of credit from SOEs is currently limited to certain entities whose projects have entered the implementation phase.

He hopes that the mechanism for making investment decisions for SOEs can be simplified this year so that the movement of the real sector can take place faster.

From the private sector, Aviliani said that interest in credit still exists even though it is not even. The demand comes mainly from business actors with certainty of demand or those who work in the long-term prospective sector. Meanwhile, other business actors are still waiting and seeing amid global uncertainty.

As for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), he assessed that this segment has not yet become the main driver of credit growth. Aviliani also reminded that SMEs have challenges in terms of limited demand and innovation.

According to him, it is necessary to improve the business model so that SMEs can be integrated into the supply chain of medium and large companies, so that they can grow sustainably and increase their contribution to labor absorption.

For information, based on Bank Indonesia (BI) data, credit as of November 2025 grew 7.74 percent year on year (yoy). This growth is mainly supported by investment credit which recorded double-digit growth, while working capital credit is in a low trend.

Aviliani views that current investment credit does show relatively good growth. However, the flow of financing is more directed to the capital-intensive sector which is relatively minimal in absorbing labor and tends to be efficient.

Therefore, he emphasized the need for incentives that encourage the creation of jobs so that the quality of investment can be improved.

As for working capital loans, he explained that during the high interest rate period, many business actors chose to use internal funds to support operations. Business actors also took various efficiency measures to reduce costs.

In the future, along with the decline in interest rates, Aviliani also hopes that business actors can once again utilize bank financing for working capital.