JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, November 27, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Wednesday, November 26, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.04 percent to the level of Rp. 16,664 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.04 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,673 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi explained that the increasing expectations of lower interest rates, plus the delayed release of US economic data, also strengthened these expectations.
On the other hand, he said market participants were also watching developments in peace talks between Russia and Ukraine which had stumbled again as the two countries were still carrying out attacks.
He added that from late released US economic data, the main Manufacturer Price Index (IHP) for September rose 0.3 percent on a monthly basis (MoM), in line with estimates, after falling 0.1 percent in August. Meanwhile, the core IHP that does not include food and energy components experienced an increase of 0.2 percent MoM, lower than the 0.3 percent projection.
Retail sales only grew 0.2 percent MoM in September, weakening from the 0.6 percent increase in the previous month, indicating people's consumption began to slow down.
Meanwhile the Conference Board also reported a decline in domestic sentiment in November, with the Consumer Confidence Index dropping 6.8 points to 88.7 from 95.5 in October.
"The Fed's dovish signal in recent days has prompted traders to increase interest rate lowering bets, reversing previous hawkish forecasts that emerged from the careful tone of Fed officials," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, November 27.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chance of lowering interest rates in December is now in the range of 80 percent. However, different views among Fed officials as well as the release of inflation and employment data that will only come out after the December 910 meeting left the prospect uncertain.
Meanwhile, from within the country, the 6 percent economic growth target conveyed by the Minister of Finance, Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa, is considered quite realistic. However, its achievements require a change in the approach to economic analysis, especially in the way the government encourages national economic activity.
Ibrahim said that this target is not impossible, but fundamental changes are needed in interpreting the role of fiscal and monetary policies. The government fund placement program in banks is starting to have an impact, although it is not yet optimal.
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Ibrahim said that to bring the Indonesian economy to a higher level, existing policies needed to be strengthened with additional steps, some of which were labor market reforms, increased support for the domestic industry, and controlling imports of illegal goods or thrifting in order to maintain the competitiveness of the national industry.
"Then, the steps to curb imports of illegal goods or so-called Thrifting are appropriate to protect the domestic industry. The provision of tax incentives for companies that create new jobs," he explained.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,660 - IDR 16,700 per US dollar.
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