JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, November 19, 2025 is predicted to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, November 18, the rupiah spot exchange closed down 0.09 percent to the level of Rp. 16,751 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.15 percent at a price level of Rp. 16,760 per US dollar.
Money market observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that market participants were still waiting for clarity regarding the direction of the Federal Reserve (Fed) monetary policy after the end of the longest US government closure in history, which had delayed the publication of a number of official economic data.
"Some Fed policymakers, including Fed Atlanta Bostic President and Fed Kansas City President Schmid, voiced concerns about inflation or signaled support for maintaining fixed interest rates," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, November 19.
Ia menambahkan, bahwa data nonfarm payroll (NFP) untuk September yang akan dirilis pada Kamis diperkirakan menjadi data tenaga kerja resmi terakhir sebelum pertemuan The Fed pada 1011 Desember.
Based on the CME Fedwatch, the market considers there is a 42.4 percent chance that the Fed will lower interest rates by 25 basis points, while 57.6 percent estimate the interest rate to be fixed.
Ibrahim also explained that the current market focus is on the minutes of the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting which will be announced Wednesday, as well as the release of the September NFP data by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
Meanwhile, from within the country, Bank Indonesia recorded a slowdown in Indonesia's Foreign Debt (ULN) growth. As of October 2025, Indonesia's external debt was at the level of 424.4 billion US dollars, down from the July 2025 position which reached 432.3 billion US dollars. On an annual basis, Indonesia's external debt contracted 0.6 percent (yoy) in the third quarter of 2025, reversing from 6.4 percent (yoy) growth in the second quarter of 2025.
Meanwhile, BI also reported a slowdown in government external debt growth. In the third quarter of 2025, government external debt was recorded at 210.1 billion US dollars or grew 2.9 percent (yoy), slowing down compared to the growth of 10 percent (yoy) in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, this development was influenced by the decline in foreign capital flows in Government Securities (SBN) in line with the high uncertainty of global financial markets. Based on the economic sector, government external debt is mostly allocated to the Health Services and Social Activities sector, which is 23.1 percent.
However, the structure of Indonesia's external debt is considered to remain healthy thanks to the application of the precautionary principle. This can be seen from the ratio of external debt to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) which fell to 29.5 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from the previous 30.4 percent in the second quarter of 2025, and the dominance of long-term external debt which reached 86.1 percent.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower in trading on Wednesday, November 19, 2025, in the price range of Rp. 16,750 - Rp. 16,770 per US dollar.
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