Beaten By Local Sentiment, JCI Tuesday Will 'Fire' Again?

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The Composite Stock Price Index "fire" aka weakened quite deeply at the end of trading on Monday, October 27 yesterday. JCI ended lower 1.87 percent to 8,117, and had touched its lowest level at 7,959.

The weakening was triggered by negative sentiment related to the Morgan Stanley Capital Index (MSCI) plan which will make adjustments to the methodology of calculating free float specifically for Indonesian stock constituents.

MSCI is discussed to use the Indonesian Central Securities Depository (KSEI) data for free float calculations. As is known, so far issuers in Indonesia have only reported shareholders with ownership of more than the same as 5% to the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).

Meanwhile, KSEI data reports ownership below less than 5% and provides a classification of shareholders so that they can provide a more detailed picture of shareholders of less than 5 percent.

Phintraco Sekuritas in his research said that MSCI will also implement a new rounding starting May 2026, with different rules depending on the size of the free float.

If the portion is 25 percent, it will be rounded to the nearest 2.5 percent, if 5 percent to 25 percent, it will be rounded to the nearest 0.5 percent, and if it is less than 5 percent it will be rounded to the nearest 0.5 percent.

"This policy will have an impact on the weight of Indonesian shares in the MSCI Emerging Markets index," explained Phintraco Sekuritas

Technically, according to Phintraco Sekuritas, the JCI experienced a breakdown in MA20 at the level of 8.117 with an increase in transaction volume. Stochastic RSI also appears to experience a death cross in the pivot area, with MACD forming a negative slope narrowing. JCI has the potential to test the psychological level of 8,000 with support 8,000 and resistance 8,300 today.

The market will also await the realization of 3Q25 financial reports and the improvement in the domestic economy in the fourth quarter of 2025.

With these various sentiments, Phintraco Sekuritas advised investors to pay close attention to the shares of PT Adaro Minerals Indonesia Tbk (AMDR), PT Bank Neo Commerce Tbk (BBYB), PT MAP Active Adiperkasa Tbk (MAPA), PT Bank Jago Tbk (ARTO), and PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM).