JAKARTA - The Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) assesses President Prabowo Subianto's optimism to meet the carbon zero emission target (Net Zero Emission/NZE) in the Paris Agreement needs to be reflected in the Indonesian climate commitment document or Second Nationally Determined Contribution (SNDC).
Currently, the Indonesian government is in the final stages of drafting the Second NDC.
IESR menilai target SNDC tersebut belum cukup ambisius, di mana target penurunan emisi hanya meningkat sedikit. Dibandingkan dengan Enhanced NDC (ENDC), target penurunan emisi tanpa syarat lebih rendah delapan, target kondisi lebih 9-17 persen di luar target sektor kehutanan dan penggunaan lahan, kata Chief Executive Officer (CEO) IESR Fabby Tumiwa dalam keterangannya di Jakarta, dikutip Antara, Kamis, 25 September.
This means that there is still a greater need for emission reduction to be in line with the 1.5 degC route.
Fabby said the government needed to increase efforts to reduce emissions in the energy sector, instead of relying too much on the forestry and land sectors. To be in line with the Paris Agreement target, the renewable energy mix must reach 40-45 percent by 2030 and 55 percent by 2035.
Although recently the President ordered the development of 100 gigawatts (GW) of PLTS and batteries, according to him, the implementation plan is not yet clear.
In addition, PP Number 40/2025 concerning the newly promulgated National Energy Policy turns out that the mix target is still not in line with the 1.5$C roadmap.
In addition to increasing the capacity of renewable energy, he said, the government needs to start planning and implementing coal PLTU pensions and designing fuel subsidy reforms in order to create equal matches for renewable energy.
The presence of the 100 GW PLTS project and batteries will also open up opportunities for the public to experience direct affordable, reliable, and environmentally friendly renewable electricity. This ambition must be covered by an emission reduction strategy at SNDC," said Fabby.
IESR assesses that SNDC should be a blueprint for Indonesia's climate commitment.
President Prabowo in various international forums targets the termination of coal power plants in 15 years, 100 percent renewable energy in 10 years, and self-sufficiency. However, in a speech at the UN General Assembly (23/9), he emphasized the net zero emission (NZE) target in 2060, although optimistic it could be faster.
This difference, said Fabby, creates confusion. Therefore, this commitment should be stated in SNDC so that it is more credible and can be achieved.
For this reason, Fabby details four recommendations for the government. First, set the peak emissions in 2030 and net zero in 2050 or sooner in all economic sectors. Second, revisit the SNDC target to be more ambitious and fair, according to the 1.5degC line.
According to the Climate Action Tracker, Indonesia's emissions are in line with the route being at the level of 860 million tons of CO2e by 2030 and 720 million tons of CO2e by 2035, excluding forestry. This target requires financial and technical support from the international community.
Third, the government must submit the NDC to UNFCCC no later than the end of September 2025 so that it can be reviewed at COP-30. Fourth, strengthen climate diplomacy in the G20 and BRICS forums, as well as support the Brazilian Presidency agenda at COP-30.
Meanwhile, IESR Climate Policy Coordinator Delima Ramadhani emphasized the need to make the first Global Stocktake (GST) results a framework for climate action preparation.
Hal ini merupakan komponen penting dalam lcycle peningkatan target (ambition cycle) Persetujuan Paris, ujarnya.
Delima added that the GST on COP28 has resulted in a collective key target to achieve Paris' goal. Therefore, these results should be the basis for Indonesian policy.
IESR also recommends concrete steps so that Indonesia's climate targets are more ambitious.
First, retire the old PLTU by 9 GW to 2035 according to the energy transition regulations. Second, reforming fossil fuel subsidies to encourage energy efficiency and reduce fuel imports.
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Third, accelerate energy efficiency through standardization, certification, and access to capital, so that industry and buildings can reduce emissions while saving costs. Fourth, follow up on Global Methane Pledge to cut global methane emissions by 30 percent by 2030, as agreed by Indonesia in 2021.
In his speech at the United Nations, President Prabowo emphasized that Indonesia's optimism in achieving NZE was faster than 2060, with a reforest strategy of 12 million hectares, creating green jobs, and increasing the portion of renewable energy. He also targets Indonesia to become the center of food, energy, and water security solutions.
IESR emphasized that optimism must be realized in the SNDC document.
"The government should not miss the opportunity to improve policy direction, strengthen the credibility of climate targets, and ensure that energy transitions take place fairly, inclusively, and sustainably," said Delima.
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