BI Predicts Retail Sales As Of August 2025 To Grow 2.7 Percent

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - Bank Indonesia estimates that retail sales performance is predicted to continue to grow in August 2025, but is lower than the previous month.

Based on the results of a sales survey of Bank Indonesia (BI), retail sales performance is reflected in the Real Sales Index (IPR) in August 2025 which grew by 2.7 percent on an annual basis or year on year (yoy) or reached 221.7.

However, it was lower than the growth in July 2025 of 4.7 percent (yoy) or reached 222.3.

Executive Director of the BI Communication Department, Ramdan Denny, said that based on his group, the moderation of growth is predicted to come from the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Groups 2.8 percent (yoy), Other Household Equipment 3.0 percent (yoy), and Motor Vehicle Fuel 12.0 percent (yoy).

"Meanwhile, several groups are predicted to record growth acceleration, thus supporting sales performance, namely the Cultural Goods and Recreation Group 10.7 percent (yoy), the Parts of Cadang and Accessori 15.8 percent (yoy), and the Subgroup of Sandang 4.0 percent (yoy)," he said in an official statement, quoted Thursday, September 11.

Denny explained that monthly sales in August 2025 are predicted to improve by recording a contraction of 0.3 percent (mtm), smaller than the contraction of 4.1 percent (mtm) in July 2025.

As for the group, the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Groups and the Sandang Subgroup in August 2025 recorded an improvement, each to -0.5 percent (mtm) and 5.1 percent (mtm), from the previous -6.0 percent (mtm) and 4.0 percent (mtm) in July 2025.

Several other groups were also recorded to continue to grow positively, namely the Motor Vehicle Fuel Group 1.9 percent (mtm), other Household Equipment 1.6 percent (mtm), and the Parts of Cadang and Accessori 0.1 percent (mtm).

In August 2025, retail sales on an annual basis are also predicted to continue to grow in some cities.

On an annual basis, an increase is predicted to occur in Banjarmasin 11.3 percent (yoy) and Makassar 2.4 percent (yoy), while Surabaya 12.7 percent (yoy), Semarang (including Purwokerto) 11.3 percent (yoy), and Denpasar 3.9 percent (yoy), are also still solid in the expansion zone.

On a monthly basis, several cities are predicted to experience an increase in sales performance, mainly Makassar, Bandung, Manado, and Denpasar, which grew by 2.9 percent (mtm), 0.3 percent (mtm), 1.8 percent (mtm), and 1.1 percent (mtm), from the previous 1.9 percent (mtm), -15.8 percent (mtm), -0.3 percent (mtm), and -0.7 percent (mtm).

In addition, Surabaya -0.2 percent (mtm) and Medan -3.4 percent (mtm) also recorded improvements even though they were still in the contraction phase.

Meanwhile, the July 2025 Real Sales Index (IPR) was recorded at 222.3, or an annual growth of 4.7 percent (yoy), an increase compared to 1.3 percent (yoy) in June 2025.

Berdasarkan kelompoknya, peningkatan kinerja penjualan tersebut berasal dari mayoritas kelompok, terutama Kelompok Suku Cadang dan Aksesori 12,6 persen (yoy), Perlengkat Rumah Tangga Lainnya 3,8 persen (yoy), serta Sublompok Alat Tulis 20,3 persen (yoy).

On a monthly basis, retail sales in July 2025 are indicated to have contracted by 4.1 percent (mtm), deeper than the contraction of 0.2 percent (mtm) in June 2025.

"The decline was mainly caused by the Food, Beverage, and Tobacco Groups as well as Information and Communication Equipment which contracted by 6.0 percent (mtm) and 1.2 percent (mtm), respectively, in line with the end of the holiday period and collective leave in the context of National Religious Holidays (HBKN) and school holidays," he said.

However, several groups recorded an increase and supported the IPR, namely the Parts of the Cadang and Accessori 8.0 percent (mtm), other Household Equipment 9.8 percent (mtm), Subgroup of Writing Equipment 46.8 percent (mtm), and Subgroup of Clothing 4.0 percent (mtm).

He explained that the increase in the Sandang Subgroup was influenced by demand ahead of the new school year, especially for footwear and bags.

In July 2025, retail sales grew on an annual basis in several survey coverage cities. On an annual basis, sales growth acceleration was recorded in Semarang (including Purwokerto) and Banjarmasin, growing by 12.4 percent (yoy) and 10.3 percent (yoy), respectively, higher than the previous month by -26.8 percent (yoy) and 6.3 percent (yoy).

Meanwhile, Surabaya 17.0 percent (yoy) and Denpasar 4.2 percent (yoy) continued to grow, although lower than the achievement in June 2025.

Selanjutnya, pada Juli 2025 kinerja penjualan secara bulanan tercatat terkontraksi di beberapa kota, terutama Bandung -15,8 persen (mtm), Medan -5,9 persen (mtm), dan Banjarmasin -0,9 persen (mtm).

Namun demikian, pertumbuhan penjualan di Semarang (termasuk Purwokerto) 4,5 persen (mtm), Jakarta 3,9 persen (mtm), dan Makassar 1,9 persen (mtm) mampu menahan kontraksi penjualan lebih dalam.

Denny menyampaikan dari sisi harga, tekanan inflasi pada tiga bulan yang akan datang, yaitu Oktober 2025, diprakirakan stabil, sementara pada enam bulan ke depan, yaitu Januari 2026 diprakirakan meningkat.

"Hal ini tecermin dari Indeks Ekspektasi Harga Umum (IEH) Oktober 2025 sebesar 134,8, relatif stabil dibandingkan dengan 134,7 pada periode sebelumnya. Sementara itu, IEH Januari 2026 tercatat sebesar 169,3, lebih tinggi dari periode sebelumnya sebesar 163,4," ujarnya.

Furthermore, in July 2025, monthly sales performance contracted in several cities, especially Bandung -15.8 percent (mtm), Medan -5.9 percent (mtm), and Banjarmasin -0.9 percent (mtm).

However, sales growth in Semarang (including Purwokerto) 4.5 percent (mtm), Jakarta 3.9 percent (mtm), and Makassar 1.9 percent (mtm) was able to withstand deeper sales contractions.

Denny said that in terms of price, inflationary pressure in the next three months, namely October 2025, is predicted to be stable, while in the next six months, namely January 2026 is predicted to increase.

"This is reflected in the October 2025 General Price Expectation Index (IEH) of 134.8, relatively stable compared to 134.7 in the previous period. Meanwhile, the IEH of January 2026 was recorded at 169.3, higher than the previous period of 163.4," he said.