JP Morgan Says Rupiah Could Improve, Year-End In The Range Of Rp. 16,100 Per US Dollar

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JP Morgan Indonesia projects that the rupiah exchange rate (exchange rate) will be at the level of Rp. 16,100 per US dollar by the end of 2025.

"Our target is Rp. 16,100 per US dollar at the end of the year, now it's at the level of more than Rp. 16,300, yes. This rupiah will be better and more stable with industry," said CEO & Senior Country Officer JP Morgan Indonesia Giovanni Ralie quoting Antara.

Regarding the current position of the rupiah, Giovanni explained that along with the investment instrument fixed income or Indonesia's current debt securities whose foreign ownership tends to be at least around 15 percent, which used to be in the range of 50 percent.

"And that's not surprising, because in the US interest rates are quite high, and why do they buy debt securities in Indonesia with this effect," said Giovanni.

In fact, the rupiah currency will strengthen against the US dollar if there is an incoming investment, both domestically and globally.

"Well, domestic or foreign, it can work if we have an easier process. So this is a medium term, not short term," said Giovanni.

On the same occasion, Head of Indonesia Research & Strategy J. P. Morgan Indonesia Henry Wibowo said the trend of rupiah exchange rate movement was also influenced by the volatility of the US dollar index).

"So, if we look at the rupiah, there are two factors, one internal factor from Indonesia as to what, investment must enter, economic growth must be good. Second is from the US dollar itself, the trend of the dollar weakens or strengthens again," said Giovanni.

His party projects that the US dollar index will weaken over the next 12 months, thus making the rupiah currency move higher.

Our view, in the next twelve months is that the US dollar trend will weaken. So that's why we Forecast at the end of this year is IDR 16,100 per US dollar," Henry said.

"In terms of the capital market, Henry projects that the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) will be at the level of 7,500-8,000 in the remainder of 2025. "Maybe in the time now until the end of the year, we feel the JCI will move at the level of IDR 7,500 to IDR 8,000," said Henry.

He explained that the performance of the Indonesian stock market will be supported by the realization of government spending in the remainder of 2205.

"Because if government spending can increase, then domestic economy recover, economic growth will recover. I think the potential can be even higher," said Henry.