Indonesian Political Stability Will Influence Rupiah Movement At Rp16,400-16,500 Per US Dollar

Rupiah and US Dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - President Commissioner of HFX International Futures Sutopo Widodo said that for trading on Tuesday, September 2, 2025, the movement of the rupiah exchange rate will be influenced by global sentiment, especially those from the United States.

According to him, US economic data such as PCE inflation and the development of the Federal Reserve (The Fed) monetary policy will be the main factor that determines the direction of the US dollar movement.

He said that if the data gave a signal that the Fed might relax its monetary policy faster than expected, then the US dollar could potentially weaken, thus opening up space for strengthening the rupiah.

"On the other hand, if US data shows a strong economy and persistent inflation, higher for longer sentiment (high interest rates in the longer term) will again dominate and have the potential to suppress the rupiah," he told VOI, Tuesday, September 2.

He added that apart from external factors, domestic sentiment should also be considered, even though the rupiah closed higher yesterday, Monday, September 1, the potential for volatility was still quite large.

Sutopo conveyed that the development of the domestic political situation, including issues that have the potential to create uncertainty, will be the focus of investors.

He added that active intervention from Bank Indonesia (BI) to maintain exchange rate stability will also be an important factor in the movement of the rupiah.

"The combination between global economic data and domestic political stability will determine whether the rupiah can continue its strengthening or be depressed again in the next trading session," he said.

Sutopo said that based on current conditions and existing sentiment, the rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is estimated to move in the range of Rp. 16,400 per US dollar to Rp. 16,500 per US dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, the rupiah exchange rate on Monday, September 1, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed up 0.49 percent to the level of Rp. 16,419 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed slightly down 0.01 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,463 per US dollar.