Rupiah Pegged At IDR 16,500 In The 2026 State Budget, Indef Economist: Too Pessimistic

Illustration: Photo: Doc. ANTARA

JAKARTA - Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Economist Eko Listiyanto assessed that the projected rupiah exchange rate at the level of Rp. 16,500 per US dollar as stipulated in the 2026 State Budget Draft (RAPBN) is too pessimistic.

In fact, continued Eko, the current trend of exchange rate movements shows that there is a strengthening space.

"If we look at the figure of Rp. 16,500, it is still too pessimistic. In fact, last year's exchange rate realization was at Rp. 16,162, and until yesterday's latest data was at Rp. 16,186. This means that the figure of Rp. 16,000 is actually a common paper," said Eko in a virtual discussion, Sunday, August 17.

According to Eko, the determination of the assumption that the exchange rate is too high in the 2026 RAPBN shows that there are things that the government is worried about. Especially related to global turmoil.

"If you are pessimistic first, even though the exchange rate is still IDR 16,100, then IDR 16,500 is installed, I think that means there are things that the government is really worried about. Whether it's due to global turmoil, decreased exports, or the impact of Trump's tariffs," he said.

In fact, said Eko, the government could bring the rupiah higher at IDR 16,000 per US dollar.

Moreover, he continued, President Prabowo also in his speech at the MPR Annual Session and the DPR/DPD Joint Session, emphasized the importance of maintaining the flow of foreign capital entering (capital inflow) while preventing the issuance of funds from within the country (outflow).

"It should be sought to bring back Rp. 16,000. Why is it relevant? Because the President himself said that he was trying to get capital inflow, and prevent outflows. That's very real in his fields. What he calls entrepreneurs who try in Indonesia, turn their money around in Indonesia," he said.

Menurut Eko, jika tren investasi terus tumbuh dan keuntungan diputar di Indonesia, hal itu akan memberi dampak langsung pada stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah.

“Kan otomatis saja, ini kan teknokratisnya, kalau banyak modal diputar di Indonesia ya rupiah akan menguat gitu kan,” ujarnya.

Sekadar informasi, pemerintah menetapkan asumsi nilai tukar rupiah sebesar Rp16.500 per dolar AS dalam Rancangan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (RAPBN) 2026.

Angka ini dipilih sebagai batas bawah dari rentang yang disepakati bersama DPR, yakni Rp16.500 hingga Rp16.900 per dolar AS.

According to Eko, if the trend of investment continues to grow and profits are rotated in Indonesia, it will have a direct impact on the stability of the rupiah exchange rate.

"It's automatic, this is technocratic, if a lot of capital is rotated in Indonesia, the rupiah will strengthen, right," he said.

For your information, the government has set the assumption that the rupiah exchange rate is IDR 16,500 per US dollar in the 2026 State Revenue and Expenditure Budget Draft (RAPBN).

This figure was chosen as the lower limit of the range agreed with the DPR, which was Rp. 16,500 to Rp. 16,900 per US dollar.