The Indonesian Economic Rate Is Considered Odd, Celios Sends A Letter To The United Nations Asking For A BPS Data Audit

BPS (intermediate)

JAKARTA Economic growth data in the second quarter of 2025 released by BPS shows indications of differences with the real conditions of the Indonesian economy, one of which is data related to the growth of the manufacturing and investment sector or PMTB.

As a government institution that is subject to international statistical standards, BPS needs to be free from political interests, be transparent and maintain data integrity.

In response to the BPS data irregularities, the Center of Economic and Law Studies (Celios) as an independent research institute sent an investigation request letter to the United Nations Statistics Agency, namely the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and the United Nations Statistical Commission.

Executive Director of Celios Bhima Yudhistira stated that the initiation carried out by her party was an effort to maintain the credibility of BPS data which had been used for various studies by academic institutions, banking analysts, the business world including MSMEs and the general public.

"The letter sent to the United Nations contains a request to review data on economic growth in the third quarter of 2025 which amounted to 5.12 percent year-on-year. We are trying to review all indicators submitted by BPS, and find the manufacturing industry is growing high, even though the Manufacturing PMI recorded contractions in the same period. The manufacturing portion of GDP is also low at 18.67 percent compared to the I 2025 quarter which is 19.25 percent, which means that premature deindustrialization continues," he said in his statement, Friday, August 8.

In addition, he said that the mass layoff data (PHK) showed an increase, and the labor-intensive industry was increasingly under pressure due to the increase in various costs.

"So what is the basis for the manufacturing industry to grow 5.68 percent yoy? Non-synchronous data must certainly be answered in transparency", said Bhima.

CELIOS Media Fiscal Policy Director Wahyudi Askar added that if there is institutional pressure or intervention in data preparation by BPS, it is against the Fundamental Principles of Official Statistics adopted by the UN Statistics Commission.

He said that credible data is not just a technical issue, but concerns Indonesia's international credibility and has a direct impact on people's welfare.

According to him, inaccuracy of economic data, especially if economic growth is exaggerated, risks misleading the direction of policy making.

"Imagine, with inaccurate data, the Government can mistakenly postpone stimulus, subsidies, or social protection because it considers the economy to be fine. Business actors, be it big and MSMEs, investors and the public will definitely be confused and negatively affected", said Media.

CelIOS hopes that the United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD) and UN Statistical Commission will immediately conduct a technical investigation into Indonesia's GDP calculation method, especially in the second quarter of 2025.

We also hope that UNSD and UN Statistical Commission will encourage the formation of a peer-reviewed mechanism involving independent experts, as well as support for transparency reform within BPS. The public's desire is simple, so that the Indonesian government calculates economic growth with SDDS Plus standards so that the data can be accounted for. Add Media.

Director of Economics Celios Nailul Huda also mentioned that distrust of BPS data is based on anomalies that occur related to historical data.

He said that economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 which was recorded higher than the first quarter felt odd, especially because there were no special moments such as Ramadan and Eid which usually boosted consumption spikes.

The first quarter of 2025 only grew 4.87 percent year on year, so it was quite odd when growth in the second quarter reached 5.12 percent. "Obviously Huda.

Furthermore, he highlighted the discrepancy between the contribution of household consumption to GDP and its growth rate.

With donations reaching 50 percent of GDP, it seems odd where household consumption growth in the first quarter of 2025 is only 4.95 percent but economic growth is at 4.87 percent. There is no moment that makes the increase in household consumption increase sharply. The consumer confidence index (IKK) also weakened from March 2025 by 121.1 down to 117.8 (June 2025). Close Huda.