JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, July 11 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar.
To note, citing Bloomberg, on Thursday, July 10, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.32 percent to the level of Rp. 16,258 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.10 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,254 per US dollar.
Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that global trade dynamics continues to be a determining factor in the direction of the market.
He added that the minutes of the Fed's June meeting show that most officials expect a drop in interest rates to occur by the end of this year, taking into account easing inflationary pressures and potential weakening of the economy and labor market.
In addition, Ibrahim said several members of the Fed supported lower interest rates at the next meeting, while others assessed that there was no need for a policy change until 2025.
" Policymakers generally view that tariff-related inflation tends to be temporary or limited and note that inflation expectations are well maintained," he said in his statement, quoted Friday, July 11.
Meanwhile, President Trump on Wednesday announced a 50 percent tariff for copper imports, effective August 1, claiming that the move aims to boost the domestic copper industry and reciprocal rates for Brazil will rise to 50 percent from 10 percent.
Trump warned that every new tariff would be rewarded with countermeasures and had started sending tariff letters to major trading partners this week, and had announced a 25 percent import duty for goods from South Korea and Japan, among other countries.
Ibrahim added that although the recent tariff threat had a limited impact on the wider market, traders remained alert to potential trade escalation in the future.
He said today's market focus was only the number of unemployed claims in the US weekly and bond yields from the US government's 30-year tenor and German CPI (mtm) data.
Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim conveyed that the market was responding positively to the government, although it had not yet received a new agreement, the government ensured that the negotiation process with the United States regarding the trade rate of 32 percent was still ongoing. even communication between the two parties continues to be built in order to get a win-win solution.
Since the 32 percent base rate was imposed on a number of Indonesian export products after membership at BRICS, the government has actively drafted a scheme to reduce its impact, including with the option of deregulation to increasing imports from the US. However, until now there has been no signal of change from Washington.
Previously, Donald Trump announced that Indonesia would still be subject to a reciprocal tariff of 32 percent and would take effect from August 1, 2025. Trump's reason for not lowering the rate to Indonesia is because the US and Indonesia do not have good trade reciprocal relations so far.
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Regarding the issue of the requirements for the establishment of Indonesian factories in the US as a return to the elimination of tariffs, this has not become the subject of official discussion. The government has not yet followed up on the wishes of the US government.
The government hopes that further negotiations in the next few weeks can produce mutually beneficial agreements, without sacrificing Indonesia's strategic position in the BRICS partnership and bilateral trade relations with the US.
Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, July 11, 2025 in the price range of Rp. 16,220 - Rp. 16,270 per US dollar.
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