Predicted Weakening, Rupiah This Morning Strengthens To Rp16,402 Per US Dollar

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Friday, March 14 is expected to move lower against the United States (US) dollar. However, at its opening the Rupiah moved higher.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Friday, March 14, the rupiah strengthened Rp26 points or 0.16 percent to Rp16,402 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said that the data on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February was lower than expected. However, the decline was mainly influenced by the decline in several items that were easily changed, while overall results still showed that inflation was still strong.

In addition, Ibrahim said that the CPI reading also did not reflect the impact of Trump's tariff policy on inflation.

"However, analysts warn that although market movements are optimistic, fundamental concerns such as trade tensions and global economic uncertainty remain, suggesting that market volatility could continue in the near future," he said in a statement, quoted Friday, March 14.

Earlier, Trump's 25 percent import duty for steel and aluminum came into effect this week, while Donald Trump threatened on Wednesday to increase global trade wars at further rates on EU goods.

Ibrahim said the market is currently focused on producer price index data for February, which will be released on Thursday, to get further clues about US inflation.

"The lower inflation gives the Federal Reserve more space to cut interest rates further, with the bank meeting next week," he said.

Meanwhile, from within the country, the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget or the February 2025 State Budget recorded a deficit of IDR 31.2 State Budget Deficit equivalent to 0.13 percent of gross domestic product (GDP). The deficit is wide from the previous month's position or January 2025, which is IDR 23.5 trillion or 0.10 percent of GDP.

Overall, the government designed a full year 2025 State Budget deficit of IDR 616.2 trillion or 2.53 percent of GDP.

Meanwhile, state revenues throughout January-February 2025 reached IDR 316.9 trillion or the equivalent of 10.5 percent of the revenue target.

The revenue decreased by 20.8 percent from the same period the previous year of Rp400.4 trillion.

Meanwhile, the realization of state spending in January-February 2025 was recorded at IDR 348.1 trillion or 9.6 percent of the government allocation and the realization of spending decreased 6.9 percent from the same period the previous year of IDR 374.3 trillion.

Along with this realization, the primary balance of the February 2025 State Budget recorded a surplus of IDR 48.1 trillion as a comparison, the primary balance in February 2024 was IDR 95 trillion, so the 0.13 percent deficit was still in the APBN design target of 2.53 percent of GDP.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Friday, March 14, 2025, in the price range of IDR 16,420 - IDR 16,460 per US dollar.