The Rupiah Is Predicted To Strengthen Driven To Weaken The US Dollar Index

US and Rupiah dollars (photo: Antara)

JAKARTA - Financial Market Observer and Commodity Ariston Tjendra said that the movement of the rupiah has the potential to strengthen against the United States (US) dollar on Wednesday, February 26.

Ariston said the US dollar index reversed again, this morning it moved in the range of 106.27 compared to the previous morning in the range of 106.75.

"The collapse of the US dollar index was triggered by data on the confidence level of US consumers in February which was released last night, the results were much lower than market expectations, 98.3 vs 102.7, while January's data was released 105.3," he told VOI, Wednesday, February 26.

Ariston said that based on records, this was the biggest decline, which was around 7 points compared to the previous month in the last 2.5 years.

In addition, Ariston said the decline in the level of confidence in US consumers was associated with expectations of an increase in President Trump's import rates which would increase domestic consumption prices.

Ariston said the decline in the level of confidence of US consumers could lead to a slowdown in the US economy because consumption plays a major role in US economic growth so that this opens up hopes of cutting the benchmark interest rate in the US.

But on the other hand, Ariston said the echo of increasing President Trump's rates was still a scourge and provided negative sentiment for risky assets.

"The declining rate of consumer confidence can be proof that Trump's tariff policy has a negative impact on economic growth," he said.

He estimates that the movement of the rupiah on Wednesday, February 26, has the potential to strengthen to a level of IDR 16,300 per US dollar with the potential for weakening to the level of IDR 16,400 per US dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, February 25, 2025, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed down 0.57 percent at the level of Rp. 16,371 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.07 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,316 per US dollar.