Indonesia Record Economic Growth Of 7.07 Percent, Indef Predicts Quarter III Stuck At 3 Percent

Illustrated. (Achmad Basarrudin / YOU)

JAKARTA - The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded that the Indonesian economy grew 7.07 percent in the second quarter of 2021 on an annual basis or year on year (yoy). Meanwhile, compared to the first quarter of 2021, the economy also grew by 3.31 percent. However, the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) predicts that the rising economic trend will only last for a moment.

Indef Executive Director Tauhid Ahmad said that growth in the third quarter of 2021 was not as bright as growth in the second quarter, which shot up to 7.07 percent. He said, the economy in the third quarter will decline considerably.

Furthermore, Tauhid predicts that the economy in the third quarter of 2021 will continue a positive trend. Even so, the figure is predicted to only be in the range of 3 to 4 percent.

"We see the situation of uncertainty that occurred in the third quarter. We estimate economic growth to be in the range of 3 to 4 percent," he said in a virtual press conference, Friday, August 6.

Tauhid said that this projection is based on looking at the pandemic situation and the restrictions on activities that are again tight due to the emergence of the delta variant. Economic growth in the third quarter will greatly impact the impact of the implementation of Emergency Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) and level 4 PPKM.

Tauhid said, if economic growth matches his predictions, then the economy can still be safe from falling again into a recession like in 2020.

However, Tauhid emphasized that this prediction also greatly depends on how the handling of the pandemic in the country will continue. As is known, the government has just extended the PPKM policy level 4 to August 9, 2021. If it is not extended, the economy may grow up to 4 percent. However, if it is extended again, the growth will be stuck at 3 percent.

"The further we deal with COVID-19, the lower economic growth will be. For example, until August 9, there may be a 4 percent chance, if it is extended again, it will be difficult to reach 4 percent in the third quarter of 2021," he said.