Mandiri Institute is confident that consumption will increase due to Ramadan in early 2026

There is a change in eating patterns, however, in general the pattern of public consumption increases in the month of Ramadan. (Illustration Freepik.com)

JAKARTA - The head of the Mandiri Institute, Andre Simangunsong, believes that the consumption pattern of the Indonesian people will increase in the first quarter of 2026, driven by the momentum of Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr in the period of 1447 Hijriah (H).

Then, he continued that the pattern of public consumption would remain high in the second quarter, in line with the momentum leading up to the school holidays.

"I'm sure at least not until the first quarter, yes maybe until the second quarter. Because there is a seasonal boost, the first quarter has Ramadan and Eid al-Fitr, and the second quarter until June and July will be a moment of school holidays, usually people's spending," said Andre in a cegat interview on the sidelines of the Public and Business Leader Forum: 2026 Outlook & Challenges in Jakarta, Saturday,

He explained that the pattern of consumption of the Indonesian people has actually been driven since the fourth quarter of this year, in line with the Economic Stimulus Package which includes the People's Welfare Direct Cash Assistance (BLT Kesra) and the Internship Program.

"The value of the BLT Kesra may be around Rp31 trillion and the Internship Program is around almost Rp500 billion, so the total may be around Rp32 trillion. The value of Rp32 trillion in the fourth quarter is very material, if we talk about nominal GDP it is around Rp22,000 to Rp23,000 trillion it may be around more than 0.016 to 0.020 yes," said Andre.

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On this occasion, he touched on Gen-Z who plays a major role in the overall consumption of Indonesian society.

"In essence, what we need to anticipate in the future is that Gen-Z is getting more dominant. So, understanding the consumption patterns of Gen Z is very important," said Andre.

Thus, according to him, the consumption pattern of Gen Z needs to be observed in line with the tendency of their consumption patterns that prioritize tertiary needs or entertainment.

"So, things related to spending, related to sports, hobbies, entertainment need to be understood. But, basically on the background yes, spending for example eating out, dining out, it is still quite large. Plus it is an essential need," said Andre.

He revealed that Gen-Z's contribution to the overall consumption of Indonesian society, which includes the entire age group of 48-51 percent.

"In essence, Gen-Z's top spending is definitely one, for eating at restaurants, tertiary, we are only talking about essential needs. So this is mainly for those who have recently graduated from college or are still in college," said Andre.