IDX Beware Of Potential Foreign Funds Out Due To Revision Of MSCI Free Float Rules

OJK dan Jajaran SRO dalam acara Media Gathering Capital Market Journalist Workshop (Aris Nurjani/VOI)

JAKARTA - The Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) revealed the potential for large amounts of foreign funds to be issued in 2026, along with Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI)'s plan to update the free float calculation method in its index.

IDX President Director Iman Rachman said the change in methodology was going through a public consultation process until the end of 2025, and had the potential to cause foreign capital outflows if properly implemented.

"We must remain vigilant. Even though we are optimistic, we are vigilant. Today, the average transaction of Rp. 16.6 trillion has only occurred in the last three months. We need sustainability," said Iman at the Media Gathering Capital Market Journalist Workshop, quoted on Sunday, November 16.

According to Iman, the biggest risk arises if MSCI decides to continue its proposal for free float changes, which could have a significant impact on the Indonesian capital market.

"Especially what I need to remind you, if MSCI implements the proposal, there is a potential (fund) to leave Indonesia which is quite large. I'm not talking about the numbers, but this is our homework," said Iman.

The IDX projects that the average daily transaction value of shares in 2026 will be in the range of IDR 14.5 trillion, lower than the temporary realization in 2025 which reached IDR 16.6 trillion per day as of November 7, 2025. This decline is considered reasonable because the spike in transactions in the last few months has still been cyclic.

The projection considers the direction of global interest rates, the downward trend in inflation, and the government's economic policy for the 2024-2029 period.

For 2026, the IDX targets the recording of 555 new effects, covering 50 stocks, EBUS, structured warrants, and KIK. As of November 7, 2025, the Exchange has recorded 648 new effects, or 151 percent of the target, with 24 listed shares and 13 shares in the pipeline.

In terms of investors, IDX targets the addition of 2 million new investors by 2026, including 50,000 Islamic securities accounts and 700,000 monthly active investors.