JAKARTA - This week, the Gabungan Stock Price Index (IHSG) is overshadowed by economic and rupiah data. Phintraco Sekuritas in his research estimates that the index will move in the resistance range 8,200, pivot 8,100, and support 8,000.
Phintraco Sekuritas explained that last week the three main indexes on the Wall Street exchange closed lower even though trading last Friday closed higher. The core PCE prices index, which is an indicator of inflation observed by the Fed, was recorded at 2.9 percent YoY in August 2025, in accordance with estimates and the same as the previous month.
"For the PCE prices headline of 2.7 percent YoY from 2.6 percent YoY in July 2025, according to estimates. However, according to the CME FedWatch tools, the market still predicts there will be twice the Fed's interest rate this year," wrote Phintraco Sekuritas.
This week, Phintraco Sekuritas said the focus of market attention would be on developing US labor market data, which would see investors look for indications of the potential for the Fed's continued decline in interest rates from the data. In addition, investors are also wary of the potential for US government shutdown this week.
From Europe, Phintraco Sekuritas said, investors will pay close attention to inflation data. Meanwhile, from domestic, the PMI manufacturing index, trade balance and inflation will be released on Wednesday, October 1.
Meanwhile, Phintraco Sekuritas said, Minister of Finance (Menkeu) Purbaya Yudhi Sadive emphasized that it would not increase cigarette excise next year. In addition, the Minister of Finance stated that he would clean up illegal cigarette markets, including illegal goods from abroad and within the country.
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The Minister of Finance also emphasized that the Himbara bank policy of increasing foreign exchange deposits to 4 percent was not a KSSK order.
The development of the movement of the rupiah is also expected to affect the JCI movement this week. Technically, the JCI this week is predicted to move in the range of 8.000-8.200, "said Phintraco Sekuritas.
The stocks recommended by Phintraco Sekuritas are EMTK, HRUM, AGRO, PSAB, ARTO, and ACES.
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