Rupiah Predicted To Strengthen To Rp16,350 Per US Dollar Amid Global Uncertainty

US and Rupiah dollars (Photo: dock. Antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, August 6 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

To note, citing Bloomberg, on Tuesday, August 5, the rupiah spot exchange closed slightly up 0.07 percent to the level of Rp. 16,390 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed stagnant percent to a price level of Rp. 16,388 per US dollar.

Currency observer Ibrahim Assuaibi said US President Donald Trump could charge Russian crude oil buyers 100 percent secondary tariffs such as India after announcing a 25 percent tariff for Indian imports in July.

"Trump again threatens higher tariffs on Indian goods for the purchase of Russian oil," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, August 6.

In addition, Ibrahim said traders were also waiting for the latest US tariff developments on their trading partners, which he feared could slow economic growth.

Ibrahim also highlighted that the US employment report in July released on Friday last week provided a clear downward shock.

"The data significantly increases the possibility of lowering interest rates at the next Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting in September, a shift in sentiment after the market recently reduced expectations of lower interest rates," he said.

According to him, the Fed's chance of cutting the interest rate at its September meeting was 90 percent, up from only about 40 percent before US Non Faram Payroll data was released.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Ibrahim conveyed that the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) reported that Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 reached 5.12 percent year on year (YoY). This economic growth was recorded to grow when compared to the previous quarter which reached 4.87 percent YoY.

Meanwhile, on a quarterly basis, Indonesia's economic growth reached 4.04 percent quarter to quarter (QtQ), after previously experiencing a contraction of 0.98 percent QtQ.

Meanwhile, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices (ADHB) in the second quarter of 2025 was recorded at IDR 5,665.9 trillion, while on the basis of constant prices (ADHK) it reached IDR 3,264.5 trillion.

Meanwhile, economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 was supported by domestic activity. Indonesia's economic growth in the second quarter of 2025 is somewhat surprising, because a number of economists estimate that economic growth in this period will grow below 5 percent YoY.

In addition, the economic growth in this period is also higher than the fourth quarter of 2025 by 5.02 percent YoY, even higher than the first quarter of 2024 by 5.11 percent YoY.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Wednesday, August 6, 2025 in the price range of IDR 16,350 - IDR 16,400 per US dollar.