Ketum Apindo Predicts Economic Growth In 2025 Only In The Range Of 5.2 Percent

Chairman of the Indonesian Employers' Association (Apindo) Shinta W Kamdani. (Photo: Aris Nurjani/VOI)

JAKARTA - Chairman of the Indonesian Employers' Association (Apindo) Shinta W Kamdani predicts that Indonesia's economic growth next year will not jump too high, namely only in the range of 4.9 percent to 5.2 percent.

"We also predict that later in 2025, there will also be no too high jumps, so our prediction next year is that the growth will be between 4.9 percent-5.2 percent, so maybe it tends to be 5 and above, so it's at 5.1 percent- 5.2 percent," said Shinta W Kamdani at a press conference, Thursday, December 19.

Shinta said this prediction was made based on various indicators such as unstable global strategic environmental conditions, global inflation that has not been fully controlled, continuing to decline in the middle class due to the pressure of increasing VAT on certain goods.

In addition, he continued, there is the potential for layoffs due to the increase in the UMP which is not balanced with productivity, until the end of the boom commodity era (windfall) from CPO and coal commodities to the election of US President Donald Trump in the Indonesian economy.

Meanwhile, based on sectoral regulations, Shinta predicts, in 2025 there will be 5 key sectors in the distribution of GDP, namely the manufacturing, agriculture, trade, mining, and construction industries.

However, Shinta said that sector growth related to food and drink accommodation, government administration, company services, transportation and warehousing, and other services will experience degradation due to cutting the government's official travel costs by 50 percent which will affect Meetings, Incentives, Conferences, and Exhibition Events in the regions.

"The business world also highlights two other sectors that will grow rapidly in the future, namely the digital economy which will be greatly influenced by digital transformation and expansion in e-commerce, as well as the green sector which is influenced by commitment to sustainability," he explained.

Shinta also estimates that domestic inflation can still be maintained in the range of 2.5 percent with a 1 percent deviation as targeted by Bank Indonesia by substitution of energy commodities and controlling food production through food security programs.

According to Shinta, the export foreign exchange (DHE), Local Currency Transaction (LCT), SRBI, and SVBI policies have not been able to maintain the rupiah exchange rate caused because Indonesia is a small open economy country, especially in oil, food, digital services, and ICT products that need special attention.

"Therefore, Apindo considers that the rupiah exchange rate during 2025 will move in the range of Rp. 15,800-Rp. 16,350 per US dollar," he said.