The Rupiah Is Predicted To Weaken Again Due To The Expetition Of Donald Trump's Policy

US dollar (Photo: dock unsplash)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Thursday, November 28, 2024 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, November 26, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed down 0.34 percent at the level of Rp. 15,935 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed down 0.41 percent to a price level of Rp. 15,930 per US dollar.

Director of PT. Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said the US dollar had risen for eight consecutive weeks with many technical indicators showing overboughts because of the bet that Trump's policy would trigger inflation and further support the dollar.

"US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose additional trade rates on China and other countries, raising fears of a new trade war," he said in a statement, quoted Thursday, November 28.

In addition, Ibrahim said on Trump's Truth Social social network that he would impose an additional 10 percent tariff on goods from China and 25 percent on all products from Mexico and Canada.

Ibrahim said the move was intended to reduce migrants and illegal drugs crossing the US border.

Meanwhile, from within the country, Indonesia's economic growth in 2024 is predicted not to reach 5.1 percent (YoY). The possibility is only at the level of 5 percent (YoY). Because spending at the end of the year increases, but it will not necessarily increase the number of economic growth because it is a seasonal factor.

As for the fourth quarter of 2024, GDP should be flat or there will be soft acceleration because spending in the third quarter before, social assistance spending increased but the effect has not been seen to consumption.

Meanwhile, in 2025 there will be a number of factors that will affect Indonesia's economic growth, if the government raises the Value Added Tax (VAT) rate to 12 percent, economic growth on an annual basis can be at 4.91 percent to 4.96 percent. This figure is far from the target next year which will reach 5.2 percent.

Then, global conditions that are not necessarily recovering will be a challenge in itself. One that needs to be watched out for, for example, the tariff policy from the elected president of the United States (US) Donald Trump could have an impact on flooding goods from China to Indonesia.

Ibrahim said that as a result, prices were depressed and competitive with local producers, so liquidity became a challenge in itself for economic growth.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading Thursday, November 28, 2024, in the price range of IDR 15,920 - IDR 16,000 per US dollar.