Economists Predict Indonesia's Trade Balance Surplus 2.92 Billion US Dollars In September 2024

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - Bank Permata economist Josua Pardede estimates that the trade balance in September 2024 is estimated to have a surplus of 2.92 billion US dollars from the previous month which recorded a surplus of 2.9 billion US dollars.

"Export monthly performance is estimated to contract 3.85 percent (mtm) even though the annual export rate is estimated to grow 9.21 percent (yoy)," he explained to VOI, Monday, October 14.

Josua said the monthly rate of contracted exports in September was influenced by the decline in Coal commodity prices, which averaged down by around 4.5 percent (mtm) throughout September.

In addition, according to Josua, the downward trend in global manufacturing activity indicated by the manufacturing PMI from most of Indonesia's main trading partners continues the downward trend and several countries such as the US, China and Europe are still in a contractive phase.

On the other hand, the monthly import performance is estimated to contract 4.5 percent (mtm) even though the annual export rate is estimated to grow by 13.8 percent (yoy).

Josua said the decline in import performance was influenced by the potential decline in oil and gas imports in September. The trend of decreasing Brent prices in September by 7.6 percent (mtm) is expected to affect the decline in oil and gas imports.

Meanwhile, seasonal factors for the decline in non-oil and gas imports in September in recent years are also expected to affect the performance of non-oil and gas imports.

"We estimate that CAD will widen moderately, from minus 0.16 percent of GDP in 2023 to minus 0.78 percent of GDP in 2024," he said.

Josua said that this projection considers several main factors, including the gradual normalization of commodity prices and the potential impact of weakening global demand.

"Indonesia's downstream policy is anticipated to reduce the dependence of current transactions on commodity prices, thus helping reduce the deficit," he said.

In addition, Josua said a series of global policy interest rates this year could also mitigate further declines in commodity prices to a certain extent.