Causes Bitcoin To Drop Today

Bitcoin, the largest crypto asset by market cap. (Photo; Doc. Duna)

JAKARTA - Towards the new year, Bitcoin has fallen more than two percent. Bitcoin prices hit their lowest point at the level of 92,941 US dollars (Rp1.4 billion) on Sunday 31 December. Today, Bitcoin slumped to its lowest point again and then slowly descended from a price of 92,398 US dollars (Rp1.49 billion).

Data from CoinMarketCap on Tuesday, December 31, shows that the price of Bitcoin has still fallen 0.8 percent in the last 24 hours. According to a report by crypto analytic platform Santiment reveals: "After the post-Christmas market decline, the crypto market is showing an encouraging trend with the deployment of stablecoins by 'whale' to crypto exchanges."

Historically, the fourth quarter is a strong period for Bitcoin and altcoins, in line with the market cycle. Currently, the crypto market is experiencing a common cooling after the halving event that took place at this year's engagement.

After the previous halvings, namely in 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin experienced a significant increase in the following year. Analysts estimate that after the 2024 halving, the price of Bitcoin could reach 115,733 US dollars (Rp1,873,878,600) in six months, and the potential is up to 361,152 US dollars (Rp 5,850,182,400) in one year.

External Factors

External factors such as global liquidity and government actions also affect the market. Coupled with Janet Yellen's latest announcement regarding the US debt limit will end in mid-January 2025. This sparked the possibility of printing more money and quantitative easing. This situation is also beneficial for assets like Bitcoin.

In the future, January is expected to be a fairly quiet month, with real action starting in February. Historically, March tends to be a strong month, followed by potential consolidation in April and May due to the tax season. After that, the market can resume to increase in the summer, continuing into the fourth quarter.

Currently, Bitcoin is in the range, not yet fully penetrating, but it reacts to support and resistance levels. If Bitcoin remains below the resistance of 94,270 US dollars (Rp1,528,174,000), we may see a further decline, with a target of around 91,400 US dollars (Rp1,480,680,000).

However, if Bitcoin penetrates above US$94,270 resistance, this could be a sign of a reversal, aka reversal. Coingape reports that for now, price movement prices are still weakening and investors will have to wait for the movement of the BTC price below support points to confirm further declines.

It should be noted that some analysts predict the price of Bitcoin could reach 200,000 US dollars (Rp 3,240,000,000) by 2025, assuming increased institutional adoption and supporting government policies.