Pasar Tunggu Pemkarangan Suku Bunga The Fed Dan BI Rate, Rupiah Berpotensi Menguat

Rupiah Dollar (Photo: antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, August 21, 2024 is expected to move higher against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, August 20, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed up 0.74 percent at the level of Rp. 15,436 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed higher by 0.71 percent to a price level of Rp. 15,480 per US dollar.

Director of PT. Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said investors were also waiting for indications of the US Federal Reserve's plans for a decision on the next interest rate.

"The Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points on each of the remaining three meetings by 2024, one reduction more than expected last month, according to a majority of economists surveyed by Reuters who say the recession is unlikely," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, August 21.

Ibrahim said members of The Fed Mary Daly and Austan Goolsbee over the weekend hinted at a possible easing in September, while the minutes of the final policy meeting to be released this week should underscore the dovish prospects.

Meanwhile, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell made a speech at Jackson Hole on Friday and investors assumed he would recognize the reasons for cutting interest rates

In addition, People's Bank maintains loan benchmark interest rates remain unchanged, as expected widely. However, the move still disappoints some traders who expect more interest rates to fall in the country, especially after the central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates in July.

From a domestic perspective, since the leadership of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi), Indonesia's economic growth is still not far from the 5 percent level. Even so, in his State Speech, Jokowi said that economic growth, which is still at the level of 5 percent, is something to be grateful for.

The reason is, many other countries do not experience economic growth and are even included in the category of slowing growth. However, Indonesia was able to recover faster, and even continue to grow.

And it must be remembered, the Indonesian economy in the Jokowi government is not designed to grow in the range of 6 percent, but to prevent growth from falling further, as is the trend of decreasing growth at the end of the government of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY).

Furthermore, Bank Indonesia (BI) will hold a Board of Governors Meeting (RDG) on Tuesday and Wednesday this week. One of the most awaited markets is BI's statement regarding future policies. The US central bank The Federal Reserve (The Fed) has hinted at cutting in September and BI is expected to follow suit.

BI itself has raised interest rates by 275 bps from 3.5 percent in August 2022 to 6.25 percent today. The reduction in interest rates is expected to boost Indonesia's credit and economic growth. BI will also decide the benchmark interest rate or BI Rate for the August 2024 period.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close higher in trading on Wednesday, August 21, 2024, in the price range of IDR 15,350 - IDR 15,450 per US dollar.