Pasar Tunggu Pengurunan Suku Bunga The Fed, Rupiah Berpotensi Meweak

Rupiah Dollar (Photo: antara)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate in trading Wednesday, July 10, 2024 is expected to weaken against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Tuesday, July 9, 2024, the rupiah exchange rate on the spot market closed higher by 0.04 percent at the level of Rp. 16,251 per US dollar. Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate closed lower by 0.09 percent to a price level of Rp. 16,281 per US dollar.

Director of PT.Laba Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi conveyed that weak data in the labor market made traders bet that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell would give a dovish statement for two days of his testimony before Congress.

"Although Powell recently recorded progress towards disinflation, he also said that the Fed still needed more trust to start lowering interest rates," he said in a statement, quoted Wednesday, July 10.

According to Ibrahim, the main data on consumer price index inflation is also available, and will likely be a factor in the Fed's interest rate prospects.

Traders currently set an opportunity of about 76 percent for a drop in interest rates at the Fed meeting in September, up from 64 percent last week, according to the FedWatch Tool of the CME Group.

From an internal perspective, the Government estimates that the deficit in the State Revenue and Expenditure Budget (APBN) will widen to 2.7 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) or reach IDR 609.7 trillion by the end of 2024. The projected deficit is higher when compared to the initial target in the 2024 State Budget which is IDR 522.8 trillion or equivalent to 2.29 percent of GDP.

This deficit is due to state spending which is estimated to increase to Rp3,412.2 trillion by the end of 2024, from the initial ceiling of Rp3,325.1 trillion. Meanwhile, state revenue is estimated to reach Rp2,802.5 trillion by the end of 2024, up slightly from the initial target of Rp2,802.3 trillion.

With these developments, budget financing to cover the additional deficit is estimated at IDR 609.7 trillion. Therefore, the government will increase new debt to cover the difference in the deficit through additional use of more budget balances (SAL) of IDR 100 trillion, not through new debt. However, through the issuance of State securities (SBN) until the end of 2024 it will remain low.

Previously, the government in 2022 and 2023 was able to collect more budget balances (SAL) large enough so that they can be utilized at this time, in the midst of global interest rates that tend to be high.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but close lower in trading on Wednesday, July 10, 2024, in the price range of IDR 16,270 - IDR 16,330 per US dollar.