Bank Mandiri Research Predicts Indonesia's Economy To Grow 5.06 Percent In 2024

Head of Macroeconomic & Financial Market Research Bank Mandiri Dian Ayu Yustina (Photo: Screenshot by Aris Nurjani / VOI)

JAKARTA - Bank Mandiri Head of Macroeconomic & Financial Market Research Dian Ayu Yustina estimates Indonesia's economic growth to be 5.06 percent by 2024. Because the Indonesian economy is estimated to be quite resilient in facing global turmoil.

Dian said Indonesia's economy in 2024 is estimated to be quite resilient in the midst of global turmoil. This is in line with the end of a series of stages of the Presidential Election (Pilpres), which will encourage the confidence of economic actors to expand.

"The economy will still be able to grow healthy in 2024 at 5.06 percent. Of course we see this is still on guard with the current conditions of geopolitical challenges," said Dian in Mandiri Macroemic Outlook Tuesday, May 14, 2024.

In addition, Dian said that the start of the Regional Head Election (Pilkada) stage could also provide a boost to Indonesia's consumption growth.

According to Dian, currently the challenges that Indonesia is facing are in the financial market, especially related to the volatility of the rupiah exchange rate. However, he believes that the rupiah will still have the potential to strengthen again at the end of the year if the Fed lowers its benchmark interest rate.

"But we still see that there is potential for strengthening at the end of the year if the Fed lowers its interest rates in the second semester or towards the end of the year. So this will depend on data developments, especially in the US economy and geopoliticals, especially since there is a factor in the US election at the end of the year," he said.

On the other hand, Dian said that the weakening of global economic conditions began to have an impact on investment and trade balance. This is reflected in investment growth in the first quarter of 2024 which tends to slow down, especially the low level of non-construction investment.

According to Dian, if geopolitical pressure has not subsided, there will be a potential risk of rising energy and food prices, as well as the issuance of foreign portfolio investments that will cause the strengthening of the US dollar. So that the benchmark interest rate will not drop in the near future.