Rupiah Potentially Moving Weaker, Check Out The Sentiment

Illustration (Photo: Doc. ANTARA)

JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate on Thursday, February 29, 2024, is expected to weaken again against the United States (US) dollar.

Quoting Bloomberg, the Rupiah exchange rate on Wednesday, February 28, the rupiah spot exchange rate closed down 0.30 percent Rp15,692 per US dollar.

Meanwhile, the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (Jisdor) exchange rate of Bank Indonesia (BI) closed lower by 0.11 percent to a price level of IDR 15,673 per US dollar.

Director of PT Profit Forexindo Berjangka Ibrahim Assuaibi said the market is now waiting for the United States inflation rate and major economic growth for further trade signs and is expected to show inflation remains stable in January.

Ibrahim said such a scenario gives the Fed more encouragement to keep interest rates higher over a longer period of time.

Several Fed officials also warned this week that high inflation would deter the Fed from lowering interest rates in early 2024.

"Before inflationary data is released, the second quarter of GDP reading will be released on Wednesday, and is expected to show a decline in economic growth. However, the US economy is expected to remain superior to developed countries, thus providing room for the Fed to maintain higher interest rates in a longer time," he said in his statement quoted Thursday, February 29.

From an internal point of view, entering the 2024 period, the picture of global economic prospects is overshadowed by recession and hyperinflation as a result of the geopolitical situation and the international geoeconomics.

However, macroeconomic conditions at the beginning of the first quarter of 2024 were seen showing a more optimistic outlook, especially accompanied by a peaceful presidential election (presidential election).

This is shown by the performance of the US and Chinese stock markets which are moving to a much more positive trend. After the reopening of economic access in China, global investor demand for shares in the Chinese market has increased. The double increase in Chinese equity purchases, compared to the 2019 figure or pre-pandemic period.

In addition, President Joko Widodo said that Indonesia's economy is the best in the midst of the threat of a global crisis. Even Indonesia is included in the three G20 countries with good economic growth conditions.

Indonesia's economy in 2023 grew by 5.05 percent in line with controlled inflation at 2.57 percent.

Then, the poverty rate decreased to 9.36 percent.

Unemployment decreased to 5.32 percent, and the inequality ratio also decreased to 0.388 percent.

Even so, Jokowi still asks the government and society to be careful and remain vigilant. Given that global challenges are increasingly complex and the direction is unclear.

Ibrahim estimates that the rupiah will fluctuate but closed lower on Thursday, February 29 trading in the price range of Rp. 15,680- Rp. 15,750 per US dollar.