DBS Economist Says Indonesia's Economic Growth Can Be 5 Percent In 2024

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JAKARTA - Head of DBS Group Research Maynard Arif estimates that Indonesia's economy will grow in the range of 5 percent in 2024 while keeping domestic demand growing, from the consumption side to investment. "For growth, it is supported by more than domestic factors such as consumption, social assistance, lower elections and inflation, because exports and commodity prices are still low," said Maynard, quoted from Antara, in Jakarta, Tuesday, February 6. He said Indonesia's economic growth projection was based on considering the global economic prospects for 2024 which is still haunted by slowdown or experiencing "soft landing", and the decline in the policy interest rate of the United States (USA) or Fed Funds Rate (FFR) which is estimated to start in the second semester of 2024. "We see Indonesia's economic growth may still remain relative to around 5 percent in 2024," he said. In addition, the economic slowdown in China could affect Indonesia's export performance in 2024. That's because China is one of Indonesia's main export markets.

China is still Indonesia's main trading partner country by contributing to nearly a quarter of Indonesia's total exports.

Nilai ekspor ke China sepanjang Januari hingga November 2023 mencapai 56,57 miliar dolar AS, turun sekitar 2 persen dari tahun sebelumnya. Penurunan itu terjadi seiring dengan koreksi pada harga komoditas global.

On the other hand, investors are still waiting and observing the 2024 general election (election). Historically, continued Maynard, the last three elections were safe, and all the candidates selected did not make anti-investor policies. "Usually after being elected there will be another increase for foreign investment," he said. According to him, one round election in 2024 will have a positive impact because it reduces uncertainty. "In fact, what is important for us is how the domestic economy can keep it from slowing down because from the export side it is out of control," he said.