JAKARTA - PT Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia predicts that the easing of COVID-19 which causes social restrictions to be relaxed will enliven economic activity during the Fasting Month and Eid celebrations this year, which will benefit the retail sector and issuers.
Hariyanto Wijaya, Head of Research at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, assessed that the level of public spending to prepare for and for going home this year will increase significantly compared to the last 2 years, which will benefit retail issuers such as PT Matahari Department Store Tbk (LPPF). LPPF has just been added to the Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Stock Picks list.
He said the easing of COVID-19, which will have an impact on increasing community mobility, was the first supporting factor for the hectic Fasting Month and Eid this year. The second factor is the predicted increase in public spending in the midst of Eid celebrations and the third is the increase in commodity prices. Trends in visits to stations, retail and recreation, parks and workplaces set a record high since the pandemic.
"Furthermore, visits to grocery stores and pharmacies also set a record high since the delta variant of the COVID-19 virus attack," said Hariyanto at the Media Day: Ramadan Season by Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia event, Thursday, April 21.
Another new occupant of Stock Picks is the shipping company PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR). With the addition of LPPF and SMDR, Stock Picks Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia became BBNI, BBRI, LPPF, SMDR, ITMG, ADRO, UNTR, and ANTM.
Since the start of monthly Stock Picks in August 2019 until April 8, 2022, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Stock Picks have posted an accumulative return of 60.2 percent (vs. JCI 12.8 percent), so they have an advantage of 47.4 percent.
On the other hand, the second factor supporting the busyness of Ramadan and Eid is the prediction of an increase in the number of people celebrating Hari Raya, which is 85 million people, compared to last year's only 1.5 million people. The obligation to pay holiday allowances (THR) in full to employers, after being relaxed for the last 2 years, is also considered to be able to trigger an increase in people's purchasing power.
The third factor is the continued strengthening of commodity prices, which is even predicted to be able to mitigate risks from potential monetary tightening in the US in the form of an increase in the US benchmark interest rate by the US Central Bank (The Fed), which is predicted to raise interest rates by 50 bps in May.
Martha Christina, Senior Investment Information at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia, added that in the midst of hectic public spending during the fasting month and Eid, the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) in technical analysis is predicted to consolidate. He predicts the major stock index will close at 7,099 in April after touching an all-time high of 7,355 on April 11, 2022.
"Consolidation is natural after the JCI touched the all-time high, which was added to the fasting factor throughout this month. Cyclicically, the Fasting Month was more sluggish because the all-time high factor could trigger profit-taking, but for May or the period after Lebaran, we predict can strengthen with a range of support-resistance movement at 6,759-7,748," said Martha.
Other factors that support the analysis of Martha and the Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia team are the performance of stock exchange issuers for the first quarter of 2022 which is still quite good and the distribution of dividends for 2021 financial performance.
Related to the spirit of capital market literacy and inclusion in order to increase the number of customers and the value of stock exchange transactions, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia has just initiated the Mirae Asset Academy to institutionalize the company's education program. The number of participants for the Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia education program also increased rapidly, by more than 300 percent to 65,312 people in 2021 from 15,613 people in 2018.
"Mirae Asset Academy is a manifestation of Mirae Asset Sekuritas' commitment to improve financial literacy in Indonesia by becoming the number one platform for learning investment from zero to master," said Tomi Taufan, Head of OE Management at Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia.
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