The Economy Is Gradually Recovering, Here's The Impact On The Energy Sector In 2022

Illustration. (Photo: Doc. Antara)

JAKARTA - The global economy is recovering in 2022 after two years of weakness due to the COVID-19 pandemic, this will certainly affect the energy sector. This condition must be handled carefully.

PGN President Commissioner Arcandra Tahar said, there are several important aspects that will affect the energy sector of the global economy in 2022. First, energy consumption in 2022 will recover as before the COVID-19 pandemic. Along with increasing economic activity after being sluggish for 2 years due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

If the presence of the new variant of COVID-19 can be handled properly, then oil consumption will be at the level of 100 million barrels per day (bpd), the same as before the pandemic. For the price of oil is estimated at the level of 65-80 US dollars per barrel.

"The next thing that affects prices if OPEC+ does not increase oil production, then the price of Brent oil is estimated to be at the level of 65-80 per barrel," Arcandra said, Thursday, January 13.

Next is the increase in coal prices in 2022, this is due to the demand for coal from China and India as big consumers of this commodity. However, if the defense pact (AUKUS) between Australia, Britain and the United States improves, the price of coal may be able to sag again.

The energy sector that will be affected next is the United States oil and gas company, which will sell its assets abroad and invest in the country. This is a strategy for low-carbon exploration and exploitation, and would be easier to do in the US. Clear business processes and regulations in the US are considered in this asset consolidation.

"Many assets are sold not only in Indonesia but also in other countries. Please pay attention to this, it is not related to whether there is a change in a country's regulations that made them withdraw, there is more important shareholder pressure for businesses in the US," he said.

Arcandra continued, renewable energy will also grow along with the implementation of a carbon tax or carbon sales. Several countries made the policy in 2022.

In addition, the global agreement in the 26th Conference of Parties (COP) to target Net Zero Emissions by 2060, this condition demands the termination of the operation of Steam Power Plants (PLTU) to reduce emissions.

According to Arcandra, to meet the increasing energy needs in the midst of reducing emissions, natural gas will be a mainstay during the energy transition period. The reason is, even though fossil fuel energy is low in emissions and efficient.

“In the midst of pressure and demands for green energy, natural gas as clean energy will play an important role as transitional energy. PGN can optimize these opportunities, both domestically and globally,” explained Arcandra.

President Director of the Indonesian Banking Institute Mirza Adityaswara said, during this recovery period, almost all countries in the world will make economic policy adjustments. Including policies in the energy sector.

"The presence of energy that is efficient and can reduce dependence on imports will be very important for the resilience of the national economy," he concluded.