Prediction Of The Emergence Of COVID-22: Should Vaccinations When Viruses Continue To Mutate Beyond Vaccines?

Vaccination photo illustration (Source: Antara)

JAKARTA - Sai Reddy, a professor of immunology from Zurich, Switzerland warned of the threat of a new virus. The virus that he calls COVID-22 is predicted to emerge next year, with the strength and risk of death more dangerous than all variants of COVID-19 so far. The question arises then, why vaccines if the mutation of the virus continues to exceed the progress of developing the vaccine itself? Can humans win the 'war' against the coronavirus with a vaccine?

Sai Reddy explained that COVID-22 will appear as a result of a combination of COVID-19 variants, such as Delta, Beta, or Gamma. The combination will produce an impact worse than what we have experienced today. Sai Reddy even categorizes the threat level of this virus as "very risky. "COVID-22 could be worse than what we are experiencing right now," said Sai Reddy, quoted by German media, Blick.

By far the most contagious and dangerous Delta variant. The Delta variant, named after Sai Reddy with COVID-21. This variant is highly contagious because it does not have the genetic mutation that allows it to escape the immune system in the human body. The true mutation also occurs in another variant, Beta. The variant was first discovered in South Africa. Learning from past mutations, including how Delta escaped the immune system, COVID-22 must be a concern.

The mutations of the virus also automatically exceed the effectiveness of the vaccines available today. "The pandemic will enter a new phase if Beta or Gamma becomes more infectious or Delta adopts a 'release mutation'. That will be a problem next year... If this kind of variant emerges we have to recognize it as early as possible and vaccine manufacturers have to adapt the vaccine soon. This new variant is a big risk. We must prepare ourselves."

Can vaccines available today fight viral mutations?

Health workers in vaccination activities (Source: Antara)

The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) published a study that predicted a similar possibility. The study focused on how powerful the vaccine was against viral mutations. One of the reasons for the emergence of new variants of COVID-19 is because the vaccine basically does not provide absolute immunity. While the corona virus is still widespread.

Cambridge University consultant virologist, Chris Smith said authorities in world countries must start formulating appropriate policies, not rash, and not in a hurry. "The pandemic will not end until the epidemic is completely over in all corners of the world. no (pandemic) will continue to appear again," Smith said in BBC Breakfast.

Smith himself has given his recommendation to the British government to prepare a mature booster dose vaccination strategy. "But don't be careless because it's very easy to ruin all our hard work so far when we know that over time the immunity from vaccination decreases its effectiveness."

The decrease in vaccine effectiveness was confirmed by a study by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in the United States (US). The study showed the vaccine's effectiveness against the Delta variant dropped to 66 percent. The Delta variant, which the CDC and the World Health Organization (WHO) has categorized as a Variant of Concern (VOC) was recognized as a major blow to vaccine progress and effectiveness.

Reported by Live Science, Thursday, August 26, before the delta variant appeared, the effectiveness of the corona virus vaccine was at 91 percent. This data was published in the CDC Journal Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) on August 24, 2021. In its study, the CDC collected information from four thousand health workers in six US states.

The information was collected by the CDC in December 2020 to mid-August 2021. The study period spans before and after the emergence of the Delta variant. As many as 65 percent of health workers who participated in the study received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. Others were Modena and Johnson & Johnson vaccine recipients with 33 percent and two percent respectively.

So what do we vaccinate for?

Vaccination photo illustration (Source: Antara)

Even though the COVID-19 mutation is proven to continue to outpace vaccine development progress, health experts agree that they still recommend vaccination. The reason is that vaccination can reduce the impact of the severity of the corona virus infection, even though it can't really protect itself from virus attacks, especially new variants resulting from mutations.

"Despite this moderate reduction, health officials emphasize that a sustained two-thirds reduction in infection risk underscores the importance and ongoing benefits of COVID-19 vaccination," the researchers wrote in the MMWR study.

The study also measured the severity of infection by looking at hospital stays in Los Angeles. The study compared between vaccinated and unvaccinated patients. At least 43,000 infected people in LA became the subject of observation in the period May 1 to July 25, 2021. Researchers found 71.4 percent of infections occurred among patients who had not been vaccinated.

Meanwhile, 25.3 percent of infections occurred in patients who had been fully vaccinated with doses one and two. Others, 3.3 percent are people who have not been fully vaccinated. At the end of the study period, the infection rate among those who had not been vaccinated was nearly five times greater. While the hospitalization rate between them was almost 30 higher than the complete vaccine recipients.

Vaccines, although important, cannot be the only hope. It takes a combination of 3T, 5M, and vaccination to prevent the outbreak from getting worse. And vaccines are likely to be of little use in the short term. A booster vaccine might help. But in the future, what is very important is how to mitigate the new variants that will emerge.

"And the progress of vaccination cannot be. Relying on vaccinations will not be able to effectively reduce the rate of spread. Especially when it comes to Delta, Delta Plus, Kappa or Lambda. There must be a combination of three: testing, tracing, treatment (3T); wearing masks, maintaining distance, washing hands, limiting mobility, avoiding crowds (5M); and vaccinations," Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman told VOI, Thursday, August 26.

"Speaking of vaccination, it will be in turn, even next year there must be a booster, there must be another vaccine that can last longer, for example one year. Then it can mitigate new variants that will emerge. That is the challenge. useful in the short term, a year. But it must be combined with 3T, 5M," he added.

Why are predictions about COVID-22 controversial?

The naming of COVID-22 for the prediction of a new variant of COVID-19 by Professor Sai Reddy, from Zurich, Switzerland is in fact not an official term. COVID-22 does not exist in the literature of the US CDC or other scientific organizations. Professor Thomas Russo, Head of the Center for Infectious Diseases at Buffalo University New York, USA, explained the origin of the name COVID-19.

He also said there seemed to be no plans to change the name of the damn disease. "CO for corona, VI for virus, D for disease (disease), and 19 for the first year it was found," said Russo.

Then, the naming of the SARS-CoV-2 corona virus was determined by the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses (ICTV) and was based on the genetic structure of the virus. WHO then announced the disease caused by SARS-Cov-2 with COVID-19 based on the guidelines of the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) and the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

"So, if a new variant emerges in 2022, it will likely be named with (continued) Greek letters, not Covid-22," Russo said.

Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman said the term COVID-22 was misunderstood. In addition to unofficial terminology, this prediction can create confusion and have a counterproductive impact on handling the pandemic. "One, it can cause panic. Second, on the other hand, it can make people ignore the prevention efforts," he said.

Even so, Dicky agrees that the mutation of the virus that causes COVID-19 will continue to occur. Potentially heavier variants of Delta will also emerge as long as human-to-human transmission remains unchecked.

*Read other information about COVID-19 or read other interesting articles from Yudhistira Mahabharata.

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